The latest ElectionNerd analysis from one of our anonymous super hacks. —Eds.
Mayor McGinn's ad, released this morning, tells us a couple of things and gives us an opportunity to guess what to watch for in the next few days.
First, what do we know? The last KING 5/Survey USA poll, whatever you think of the sample universe, did tell us Sen. Ed Murray was trending up. With that, coupled with intense voter contact efforts by Team Murray and rumors of internal tracking polls showing Murray's numbers climbing, we can reasonably assert that the Senator is solidifying his admission ticket to the general.Rather than winning the primary, Team McGinn has to be hoping at this point to simply survive the primary and live to fight another round.
Sadly, the story doesn't look anywhere near as rosy for Team McGinn. Poll after poll has shown that the mayor is flat-lining, with virtually no movement at all and signs of a downward trajectory. That, along with the full candidate-on-camera desperation appeal of "I'm sorry we got off on the wrong foot but can we keep dancing together because I'm really a pretty good guy" to voters suggests "plan B" has kicked in because all the voter contact thus far isn't working.
Rather than winning the primary, Team McGinn has to be hoping at this point to simply survive the primary and live to fight another round.
So will it work?
Maybe. King County is reporting that roughly 45,000 Seattle ballots have been returned as of last night. If the projected turnout of 35 percent holds, about 145,000 people will vote in the mayoral primary. Less than one-third of the votes have been locked in and late deciders could still perhaps be persuaded with the right message and targeting.
But therein lies the mayor's biggest problem. There is nothing particularly new in his latest appeal. Will voters come home to McGinn? We shall see.