According to a new Elway Poll, all four major statewide measures on the November ballot are in the lead, although only one---Tim Eyman's I-1185, which would reaffirm the requirement that any tax or fee increases receive the support of two-thirds of the state legislature or a majority vote of the people---is polling higher than 50 percent. That proposal is currently polling at 56 percent, with 30 percent opposed.

The remaining measures---Ref. 74, which would uphold gay marriage; I-1240, allowing charter schools; and I-502, legalizing marijuana---are all polling under 50

percent---a bad sign, Elway says, given that initiatives and referenda tend to lose support over the course of election campaigns rather than gain it. "Conventional wisdom holds that, because support typically fades as the campaign goes on, a ballot measure needs to be polling at 60% or better at the start of the summer to still have a majority in November," Elway writes.

Compounding matters further for the gay marriage referendum, voters appear to be confused about what R-74 would do, with fully 7 percent of respondents saying they would vote exactly the opposite of the way they said they felt about gay marriage. (A "yes" vote on the referendum would uphold Washington State's gay-marriage law). Although 52 percent of respondents said they support gay marriage, just 49 percent said they supported R-74. Similarly, while 40 percent of

respondents said they opposed gay marriage, just 39 percent said they would vote against R-74. Republicans, predictably, were far more likely to oppose the measure (68 percent) while Democrats were more likely to support it (69 percent).

Charter schools, I-1240, had a nine-point lead in Elway's poll, but still only garnered 46 percent in support overall---a bad sign for the proposal, which mirrors three similar charter efforts over the past two decades. As Elway notes, the last two charter efforts were also ahead in the Elway Poll at this stage of the campaign.

And support for marijuana legalization appears to have fizzled, with just 46 percent saying they favor I-502 and 44 percent saying they're opposed.