Morning Fizz
The Red Wave May Not End Up Taking Out Patty Murray, but...
Josh walked into the 46th floor hotel room at the Westin last night around 1:30 AM where the Murray camp was partying—dancing around the hotel chairs to disco, crowded around a glossy table recounting the race, and serving drinks out of the kitchen bar—and he was immediately slapped down for predicting Dino Rossi was going to win.
Josh just couldn't believe an incumbent campaigning in a recession where unemployment has hovered around 8 to 9 percent all year, could pull it off. And certainly Sen. Murray hasn't pulled it off yet. With about 45 percent of the vote still outstanding, it's Murray 50.5 to Rossi 49.5, a difference of 14,000 votes.
However, Josh totally concedes that the trends do look good for Murray. As we noted in yesterday's Fizz, to hold her seat, Murray couldn't be losing by more than three points overall on Tuesday night. And if she was, she'd need to be north of 58 percent in King County. Turns out, she's not losing by three points, she's winning by one point statewide, and she's at 62 percent in King County.
She's also ahead in Snohomish (51 to 48) and just behind in Pierce (49 to 50). About two-thirds of the remaining 1 million votes left to count statewide are coming in from these three Puget Sound counties (a full third from King). These counties favor Murray, particularly the later votes. (Later votes traditionally lean Democratic, and more so this year with the "enthusiasm gap.")
Rossi was hardly conceding on Tuesday night in Bellevue, though, calling the results "inconclusive." Bryce's great reports from the Bellevue Hilton are here , here, and here.
"We've got a lot of counting still to do," Rossi said, following up by thanking his supporters for "the prayers that you all sent to me"
PubliCola video of Murray's speech (along with Sen. Maria Cantwell's remarks and health care poster child Marcelas Owens' intro ) here:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn2WBlcewb0[/youtube]
One notable moment:
Couching it in a metaphor about family (and countering the Republican line about how the government needs to tighten its belt in a recession just like families do), Murray made a homespun defense of what the GOP derisively refers to as tax and spend liberalism. She explained that families deal with problems by being "frugal" and "tough" and "cutting back everywhere ... but you invest in your kids so they, like all of us, can go on to college and graduate and give back. That's a lesson for our country today, and an important one. We have to be frugal, we need to cut back, but we don't cut out our young people, we invest in our future and that's what we need to do in this country, and I'm proud to take that lesson to Washington, D.C. for all of you."
One other quick note about last night's election.
The Red wave may not end up taking out Patty Murray, but the Democrats are on the verge of losing control of the state senate, which they currently control 31-18. As we reported at the outset of the election season, the GOP gameplan was to focus on the Crescent, the King County suburbs that cradle Seattle north to south on its east bank. Four of the seven seats that Democrats could lose, and tip the balance toward the GOP, are in the Crescent. Democratic Sens. Claudia Kauffman (D-47), Eric Oemig (D-45), Randy Gordon (D-41), and Rodney Tom (D-48) were all losing last night. Kauffman is losing to Joe Fain 55.7 to 44. Oemig is losing to Andy Hill 53 to 46. Gordon is losing to Steve Litzow 52.6 to 47. And Tom is losing to Gregg Bennett 50.2 to 49.6.
The other three Democratic state senators that could be in trouble are: Steve Hobbs (D-44), who's barely beating Republican David Schmidt 50 to 49.9; Tracey Eide (D-30) who's winning over Republican Tony Moore 50.8 to 49.1; and Chris Marr (D-6), who's getting walloped by Tea Partier Michael Baumgartner 55.6 to 44.3
The Democrats need to hold on to two of these seats for a total of 26 senators to have a functioning majority. If they only hold on to one, the 25 to 24 spread might not do it. Here's why, Sen. Tim Sheldon (D-35) is the Joe Lieberman of Washington State, a conservative D who could easily choose to caucus with the Republicans, or at least carry enough sway as the deciding vote that he'll be able to capsize the Democratic agenda.
(It's also worth noting that Hobbs is also a conservative Democrat. He's not as conservative as Sheldon, but he does head up the conservative Dem caucus. If he's one of the survivors, he will also be able to pull the Democrats to the right with undue influence.)
Erica will be on KUOW today at noon to debrief on last night's results. Josh will be on KOMO with Ken Schram at 12:35 to debrief.
Josh just couldn't believe an incumbent campaigning in a recession where unemployment has hovered around 8 to 9 percent all year, could pull it off. And certainly Sen. Murray hasn't pulled it off yet. With about 45 percent of the vote still outstanding, it's Murray 50.5 to Rossi 49.5, a difference of 14,000 votes.
However, Josh totally concedes that the trends do look good for Murray. As we noted in yesterday's Fizz, to hold her seat, Murray couldn't be losing by more than three points overall on Tuesday night. And if she was, she'd need to be north of 58 percent in King County. Turns out, she's not losing by three points, she's winning by one point statewide, and she's at 62 percent in King County.
She's also ahead in Snohomish (51 to 48) and just behind in Pierce (49 to 50). About two-thirds of the remaining 1 million votes left to count statewide are coming in from these three Puget Sound counties (a full third from King). These counties favor Murray, particularly the later votes. (Later votes traditionally lean Democratic, and more so this year with the "enthusiasm gap.")
Rossi was hardly conceding on Tuesday night in Bellevue, though, calling the results "inconclusive." Bryce's great reports from the Bellevue Hilton are here , here, and here.
"We've got a lot of counting still to do," Rossi said, following up by thanking his supporters for "the prayers that you all sent to me"
PubliCola video of Murray's speech (along with Sen. Maria Cantwell's remarks and health care poster child Marcelas Owens' intro ) here:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn2WBlcewb0[/youtube]
One notable moment:
Couching it in a metaphor about family (and countering the Republican line about how the government needs to tighten its belt in a recession just like families do), Murray made a homespun defense of what the GOP derisively refers to as tax and spend liberalism. She explained that families deal with problems by being "frugal" and "tough" and "cutting back everywhere ... but you invest in your kids so they, like all of us, can go on to college and graduate and give back. That's a lesson for our country today, and an important one. We have to be frugal, we need to cut back, but we don't cut out our young people, we invest in our future and that's what we need to do in this country, and I'm proud to take that lesson to Washington, D.C. for all of you."
One other quick note about last night's election.
The Red wave may not end up taking out Patty Murray, but the Democrats are on the verge of losing control of the state senate, which they currently control 31-18. As we reported at the outset of the election season, the GOP gameplan was to focus on the Crescent, the King County suburbs that cradle Seattle north to south on its east bank. Four of the seven seats that Democrats could lose, and tip the balance toward the GOP, are in the Crescent. Democratic Sens. Claudia Kauffman (D-47), Eric Oemig (D-45), Randy Gordon (D-41), and Rodney Tom (D-48) were all losing last night. Kauffman is losing to Joe Fain 55.7 to 44. Oemig is losing to Andy Hill 53 to 46. Gordon is losing to Steve Litzow 52.6 to 47. And Tom is losing to Gregg Bennett 50.2 to 49.6.
The other three Democratic state senators that could be in trouble are: Steve Hobbs (D-44), who's barely beating Republican David Schmidt 50 to 49.9; Tracey Eide (D-30) who's winning over Republican Tony Moore 50.8 to 49.1; and Chris Marr (D-6), who's getting walloped by Tea Partier Michael Baumgartner 55.6 to 44.3
The Democrats need to hold on to two of these seats for a total of 26 senators to have a functioning majority. If they only hold on to one, the 25 to 24 spread might not do it. Here's why, Sen. Tim Sheldon (D-35) is the Joe Lieberman of Washington State, a conservative D who could easily choose to caucus with the Republicans, or at least carry enough sway as the deciding vote that he'll be able to capsize the Democratic agenda.
(It's also worth noting that Hobbs is also a conservative Democrat. He's not as conservative as Sheldon, but he does head up the conservative Dem caucus. If he's one of the survivors, he will also be able to pull the Democrats to the right with undue influence.)
Erica will be on KUOW today at noon to debrief on last night's results. Josh will be on KOMO with Ken Schram at 12:35 to debrief.
