In Seattle, the shopping is good, says Melissa Abbott. “We’re really spoiled for choice.” As a vice president at the Hartman Group, a Bellevue-based consultancy specializing in the food and beverage industry, it’s her job to know things like this. She tracks both obvious trends (the energy drinks market is oversaturated, though that hasn’t stopped people from making new ones), and what stores might bring in next—sadly, not self-driving carts or robot assistants in the aisles. 

Grocery shopping evolves all the time, but Abbott says there’s nothing drastic coming soon. “It’s going to be small changes that are going to be incremental, that will improve the shopping experience for consumers.” With the volatile economy, the bigger changes might come in customer behavior. Abbott looked into her crystal ball—and the data her team gathered for its 107-page report Food Sourcing in America—to tell us what’s next for Seattle shoppers.

The Theatrics of Thrift

Despite claims that economic uncertainty and rising prices are overwhelming them and causing them to cut down on shopping, research shows that Seattleites still prioritize values over value—freshness and seasonality over low prices. “They’re not going to change what they’re consuming, but they might change their shopping habits,” Abbott says, something she calls the theatrics of thrift. For categories they care most about, like more healthful foods, local goods, or something they consider sustainable, they continue to pay full price at their usual store. Then they go to another store, maybe a discount food store like Grocery Outlet, to get better deals on other stuff, she says. The store-level scrimping doesn’t usually result in overall savings, though. “They wind up spending just as much as they would have if they weren’t shopping at multiple stores.”

Lost in the Supermarket

“If you change anything in the store to any extent, regular shoppers lose their minds,” says Abbott. This is something she saw recently when her local Town & Country Market in Poulsbo rearranged to add a restaurant. But as stores integrate AI, people might notice the layout changes less as shopping improves. “It’s the behind-the-scenes,” says Abbott, “seeing where consumers are stopping and lingering a little bit longer.” Stores can then take that information and use it to make subtle improvements to their layout, placing complementary products together, or moving categories around so that, for example, all the breakfast foods are near each other.

Efficiency Coefficient

If a customer already clicked through their cart from a faraway computer, the enticing scent of fresh-baked bread can’t tempt them, and they won’t walk by any potential impulse purchases to get milk from the back wall, so delivery-heavy stores like Whole Foods are already investing in efficiency instead. By aligning aisles with the categories customers see on their screen, stores can help shoppers grab the prepurchased groceries faster. Other stores will forgo customers entirely: Abbott expects to see more “black stores” solely for professional shoppers picking up delivery orders, similar to ghost kitchens in the restaurant world.

Greetings from Beautiful Bellevue, WA

T&T Supermarket in Bellevue draws the gawking crowds that the QFC in University Village once did. “The congee bar and the deep-fried whole chicken; it’s just very Instagrammable and, at the same time, delicious and not outrageously priced,” Abbott says. She calls it a “destination grocery store,” and as the economy wavers, she sees a trip to one becoming a potential cut-rate weekend excursion. “Maybe they’re a little worried to be going on a family trip, so they’re just watching their expenses a little bit. This can take the place of something, like an outing.”

Restaurant Partnerships

Abbott sees restaurant-produced products on store shelves as an important upcoming trend. “We’re not eating out at restaurants to the degree that we once were, but we still want that really great experience.” A family of four who might not want to spend the money to eat at Cactus regularly might happily pay a little more to upgrade dinner at home with the restaurant’s Tex-Mex Queso at Metropolitan Market. If they aren’t going out to eat, then paying a few extra dollars for Mamnoon’s hummus over the store brand or Pasta Casalinga’s fresh noodles over boxed ones seems reasonable.

Culinary Columbusing

Shoppers love to discover new products, but checkout counter temptations and sample stations become less important when the internet shows curious customers novel products posted by friends and influencers. To keep up, the store’s job shifts somewhat to capturing online hype as in-person sales—and earning shoppers’ trust that they do it well. “That’s happening in the trend-ether, on social media, but here it is in real life,” Abbott says of the ideal experience. “We procured and curated all of this for you.”