There are few guarantees in life, and in snow-repellant Seattle, promising a winter with copious amounts of snow is going a bit too far. So, even with La Niña—the global weather pattern that typically makes for a snowier winter in this damp corner of the world—likely on the way, I’m going to stop short of assuring our largely snow-loving populace an above-average snowfall this winter.

But am I going to get as close to that line as possible? You bet—and I’ll also give you three reasons why. Some are grounded more in science, and some more in superstition. But if there’s anything my lifelong obsession with Seattle snow has taught me, it’s that when it comes to flakes flying over the city, science only gets you so far. A little luck is also necessary.

Reason #1

A Weak La Niña Weather Pattern Is Favored

First and foremost—to appease the scientists in the crowd—the stark truth is that Seattle snowfall is statistically more likely in La Niña winters. The reason why is simple: During these winters, storms tend to approach Puget Sound from a northwesterly direction, dragging down cooler air from the Gulf of Alaska in the process. Contrast that with El Niño winters like last year, where storms typically make a beeline for the California coast, leaving the Pacific Northwest somewhat drier and warmer.

To look at La Niña’s influence on Seattle snowfall, we don’t have to go back too far—prior to last winter’s dud, Mother Nature served up three straight snowy La Niña winters. Case in point: Seattle averaged roughly 10 inches of snow from the winter of 2020–21 through the winter of 2022–2023—nearly double the city’s long-term average of six inches.

Highlights during this stretch included an 8.9-inch snowfall on Feb 13, 2021—Seattle’s snowiest day in half a century—and five straight days of measurable snowfall between Christmas and New Year’s the following winter. And, of course, who can forget the slip-and-fall ice storm of Dec. 23, 2022? Check out your TikTok from two winters ago if you’re drawing a blank.

The bottom line: Snowless winters are rare in Seattle when La Niña is in play. Which is why I’ll take our chances this year.

Reason #2

We Just Had a Crappy Snowfall Year

This leads straight to the second reason why I think the snow gods are likely to favor us this year: Because they didn’t last year.

Now, obviously this logic doesn’t apply in a place like California, but in Seattle, the statistical truth is that it’s awfully hard to pull off back-to-back winters with hardly any snow. In fact, we’ve only managed this dubious feat twice this century: first in 2004–05 and 2005–06, and second in 2014–15 and 2015–16. Prior to that, you have to go back to the 1980s to find two successive nearly snowless winters. And prior to that, there were none (dating back to 1945, when record-keeping began at Sea-Tac Airport).

Simply put, bad snowfall years in Seattle tend to be followed by good ones. That’s a bet I’ll take this year.

Reason #3

Presidential Transition Years Favor Big Seattle Snows

My third and final reason is the most unconventional of all, as it’s centered around politics. Barf, right? But bear with me for a second, because here’s the rub: In each of the past six winters where the White House changed hands, Seattle has received above-average snowfall.

The trend began the winter George H. W. Bush became president-elect, with 14.2 inches of snow pasting Seattle in 1988–89—most of it arriving in a brutally harsh February that still stands as the last instance of single-digit weather in Seattle. Four years later, when Bush 1 was voted out of office in favor of Bill Clinton, 9.4 inches of snow fell throughout the winter. Then, a month after Bush 2 entered office in 2001, a heavy, wet snowstorm blasted Seattle in mid-February, dumping over half a foot of snow in parts of the city and closing schools for the day. (Unfortunately, snowfall records weren’t kept at Sea-Tac that winter, but seven inches is a reasonable estimate).

You can probably guess what happened eight years later, when Barack Obama became President-elect. Seattle was blindsided with a staggering 23.3 inches of snowfall in the winter of 2008–09—the most in the city since the early 1970s.

The transition winter from Obama to Trump was also a cold, snowy one in the city, with 11.2 inches falling throughout—including seven inches over Super Bowl weekend. And, last but not least, the aforementioned 8.9-inch snow dump in February 2021 occurred the winter Biden became president.

If you’ve lost count, that’s six straight presidential transition winters in a row with above-average snowfall in Seattle. Will the streak continue this winter?

Fresh off the heels of last winter’s dud, with a La Niña on the way, I’d say the odds sure look good.