Two separate polls came up with strikingly different conclusions about Washington state residents' eagerness to pay for a new transportation funding package today—not surprising, considering that the two polls asked strikingly different questions. 

The first, by pollster Stuart Elway, concluded that a "majority" of voters "still opposes transportation tax increases" after the collapse of the Skagit River I-5 bridge last month. Asked whether they supported raising taxes for transportation improvements or whether they opposed doing so, 54 percent of voters opposed new transportation taxes, while just 40 percent agreed that "we cannot afford not to improve the transportation system, so taxes will have to be raised." 

By focusing on taxes rather than results, the Elway Poll's questions skewed more conservative; by focusing on results rather than taxes, the EMC poll's questions skewed more liberal. 

Overall, the Elway Poll concluded, nearly one in three respondents—63 percent—said they opposed a gas tax increase (an integral part of a proposed state house transportation funding proposal), while 53 percent opposed a hypothetical license tab increase and 52 percent opposed tolling major roadways; all of those unfavorable percentages were lower than in pre-bridge-collapse polls. 

Asked about their general transportation priorities, respondents to the Elway poll strongly preferred repair and maintenance (90 percent) to things like major highways (68 percent) and mass transit (60 percent).

The poll concludes: "If the collapse of a bridge on I-5 does not stir a majority of voters to find any form of taxation acceptable to pay for transportation improvements, then passing a comprehensive transportation package is still a tall order." 

However, a separate poll, by EMC Research, concluded that "a strong majority"—69 percent—of voters support funding transportation even if it means more taxes, and that a majority of all voters said they supported passing a package to pay for transportation improvements this year. 

The difference is partly in the wording of the questions. Whereas the EMC poll asks "how important do you think it is for the legislature to pass a statewide transportation package this year to address congestion and safety issues; fund road and bridge maintenance improvements; and provide additional transit funding?", the Elway Poll asked questions like, "Which statement comes closer to your opinoin: We cannot afford to raise taxes for transportation improvements at this time or We cannot afford not to improve the transportation system, so transportation taxes will have to be raised."

By focusing on taxes rather than results, the Elway Poll's questions skewed more conservative; by focusing on results rather than taxes, the EMC poll's questions skewed more liberal. 

Additionally, the Elway poll skewed sharply toward people who identified themselves as "independent" (who tent to vote more conservatively, and thus more anti-tax):  66 percent, compared to 32 percent of the EMC voters. 

Splitting the difference, we'd say that a measure to raise taxes to pay for transportation of whatever kind—be it maintenance, repair, new highways, or transit—will be a tossup in November.