That Washington
It's the Turnout, Stupid
As hyper-local as our coverage is, it's impossible for us to ignore the Iowa caucuses.[pullquote]The level of participation will be a peek into the crystal ball of partisan enthusiasm in a swing state that will be crucial to both sides in the general election.[/pullquote]
Of all the numbers and pre-punditry about what to make of tonight's results, I thought this heads-up from the NYT Caucus blog was the best suggestion of what to look for in Iowa to get a sense of what will happen in 2012—and of the Republicans' chances for beating Obama.
In addition to keeping an eye on Mitt Romney's numbers, the evangelical vote, the viability of Ron Paul's showing, and the meaning of the fourth-place finisher, they talk about a larger issue—turnout.
And I'd add to their crystal ball analogy, that the numbers won't just be telling about Iowa; I think Republican turnout here could be a good measure of GOP enthusiasm nationwide.
In 2008, by the way, GOP turnout in the Iowa caucus was 118,696. Mike Huckabee won with 41,000 votes (34 percent) and Mitt Romney came in second with 31,000 (25 percent). Fred Thompson, the actor from Diehard II , came in third with 13.9 percent.
John McCain, the eventual nominee, came in fourth with 13 percent. (Shows you what Iowa knows!) And Ron Paul came in fifth with about 10 percent. Rudy Giuliani finished last. [pullquote]The 230,000 number bested 2004 Democratic turnout by more than 100,000 people.[/pullquote]
It's definitely a brawl on the GOP side this time—and that's good for their party. But today's turnout will show if they plan to continue taking the fight to the Democrats for real or if we're just witnessing a provincial family fight.
While Obama's 2008 win in the Iowa caucuses turned out to be a defining moment of his ascendancy, the massive turnout for Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton was surely more chilling for the Republicans to behold. The 230,000 number bested 2004 Democratic turnout by more than 100,000 people.
Of all the numbers and pre-punditry about what to make of tonight's results, I thought this heads-up from the NYT Caucus blog was the best suggestion of what to look for in Iowa to get a sense of what will happen in 2012—and of the Republicans' chances for beating Obama.
In addition to keeping an eye on Mitt Romney's numbers, the evangelical vote, the viability of Ron Paul's showing, and the meaning of the fourth-place finisher, they talk about a larger issue—turnout.
TURNOUT: In 2008, at the height of the battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrats turned out in record numbers in Iowa. More than 220,000 people gathered in caucuses to choose between the two Democrats (and the others on the ballot).
No one expects Republicans to match that number Tuesday night. But the level of participation will be a peek into the crystal ball of partisan enthusiasm in a swing state that will be crucial to both sides in the general election.
Fourteen months after a tidal wave of Republican energy helped sweep many Democrats out of Congress, the Iowa results will provide a hint about whether that intensity of purpose remains.
If 140,000 or 150,000 voters show up to the caucuses, that would be a good sign for Republicans (who have said for months that they have succeeded in adding to the rolls of registered Republicans). If fewer people show up than last time, it may suggest that the excitement of 2010 has faded a bit.
And I'd add to their crystal ball analogy, that the numbers won't just be telling about Iowa; I think Republican turnout here could be a good measure of GOP enthusiasm nationwide.
In 2008, by the way, GOP turnout in the Iowa caucus was 118,696. Mike Huckabee won with 41,000 votes (34 percent) and Mitt Romney came in second with 31,000 (25 percent). Fred Thompson, the actor from Diehard II , came in third with 13.9 percent.
John McCain, the eventual nominee, came in fourth with 13 percent. (Shows you what Iowa knows!) And Ron Paul came in fifth with about 10 percent. Rudy Giuliani finished last. [pullquote]The 230,000 number bested 2004 Democratic turnout by more than 100,000 people.[/pullquote]
It's definitely a brawl on the GOP side this time—and that's good for their party. But today's turnout will show if they plan to continue taking the fight to the Democrats for real or if we're just witnessing a provincial family fight.
While Obama's 2008 win in the Iowa caucuses turned out to be a defining moment of his ascendancy, the massive turnout for Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton was surely more chilling for the Republicans to behold. The 230,000 number bested 2004 Democratic turnout by more than 100,000 people.
