That Washington
Burner Leads Among Committed Democrats
Darcy Burner's campaign released some polling results today: Among primary voters who go for a Democrat, Burner has a big lead over the rest of the Democratic field in the 1st Congressional District: Burner (45 percent), Laura Ruderman (15 percent), Steve Hobbs (13 percent), Suzan DelBene (12 percent), Roger Goodman (10 percent), and Darshan Rauniyar (5 percent).
The poll also points out that Burner is well-liked among these committed Democratic voters; 54 percent of them have a favorable opinion of her.
It's hard to make much of these numbers, though. The release doesn't say what questions were asked. And her campaign has only released a smidgen of the data. How many Democrats haven't made up there minds yet, for example? That number would add some context to their sampling of Democrats who are already committed at this early stage of the campaign.
And just as important: Given that Washington State has a top-two primary now as opposed to separate Democratic and Republican votes, who did the independent voters go for? The newly drawn 1st Congressional District is swing turf and Democrats need to be mindful of that if they plan to hold the seat.
In other Burner news—though there wasn't a press release about it—her first batch of fundraising numbers are up at the Federal Elections Commission. Burner raised $127,000 in two months and has $89,000 cash on hand. The current fundraising leader in the race, former state rep Laura Ruderman, who's been raising cash since June, has raised $260,000 and has $187,000 cash on hand.
At first glance, by comparison, those numbers look good for Burner—and her camp points out that Ruderman's pace has declined in each report. But Ruderman's camp fires back that $127,000 is "probably disappointing" for Burner who has a national fundraising base. "We raised over $100,000 in our first month," Ruderman consultant John Wyble points out, "and we didn't spend any money doing it"—meaning they still had $100,000 cash on hand.
Of course, newly-announced candidate Suzan DelBene is the fundraiser to watch out for (she helped her 2010 campaign with $2.3 million of her own money.) However, she just started raising money and has not filed a report with the FEC yet. She also did a poll of her own earlier this month. She has not released the results.
The Burner poll was done by Lake Research and was based on 504 telephone interviews with a random sample of likely 2012 primary voters in Washington’s new 1st District. Interviews were conducted between January 23-26 and the margin of error is plus/minus 4.4 percent.
The poll also points out that Burner is well-liked among these committed Democratic voters; 54 percent of them have a favorable opinion of her.
It's hard to make much of these numbers, though. The release doesn't say what questions were asked. And her campaign has only released a smidgen of the data. How many Democrats haven't made up there minds yet, for example? That number would add some context to their sampling of Democrats who are already committed at this early stage of the campaign.
And just as important: Given that Washington State has a top-two primary now as opposed to separate Democratic and Republican votes, who did the independent voters go for? The newly drawn 1st Congressional District is swing turf and Democrats need to be mindful of that if they plan to hold the seat.
In other Burner news—though there wasn't a press release about it—her first batch of fundraising numbers are up at the Federal Elections Commission. Burner raised $127,000 in two months and has $89,000 cash on hand. The current fundraising leader in the race, former state rep Laura Ruderman, who's been raising cash since June, has raised $260,000 and has $187,000 cash on hand.
At first glance, by comparison, those numbers look good for Burner—and her camp points out that Ruderman's pace has declined in each report. But Ruderman's camp fires back that $127,000 is "probably disappointing" for Burner who has a national fundraising base. "We raised over $100,000 in our first month," Ruderman consultant John Wyble points out, "and we didn't spend any money doing it"—meaning they still had $100,000 cash on hand.
Of course, newly-announced candidate Suzan DelBene is the fundraiser to watch out for (she helped her 2010 campaign with $2.3 million of her own money.) However, she just started raising money and has not filed a report with the FEC yet. She also did a poll of her own earlier this month. She has not released the results.
The Burner poll was done by Lake Research and was based on 504 telephone interviews with a random sample of likely 2012 primary voters in Washington’s new 1st District. Interviews were conducted between January 23-26 and the margin of error is plus/minus 4.4 percent.
