We don't have a winner or loser today, just a jolt—or, more accurately, a wakeup call.

If the New York Times' read on things today is accurate—namely, that the budget deficit supercommittee is failing because the Republicans won't go for any tax increases—then Washington State, home state of supercommittee co-chair US Sen. Patty Murray, is in deep trouble.

Ironically, it was supposed to be the Republicans who got screwed if the committee flopped. The deal was set up like this: If the bipartisan committee doesn't come up with a compromise for $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction by Thanksgiving, defense spending (a favorite of Republicans, supposedly) would automatically take a half billion dollar (or even a trillion dollar) hit.[pullquote]The total defense activity is estimated to have created nearly $12.2 billion in total output in the state. This activity supported approximately 191,600 jobs and nearly $10.5 billion of labor income in the state in 2009.[/pullquote]

That doesn't work out so great for Democratic Sen. Murray. Or Washington State. We all know—think McChord, the Navy, Boeing—that defense is a big deal here. But being confronted with the actual numbers is eye opening. According to a 2010 report by Berk & Associates:

When the full economic impacts of defense related spending is considered, including direct, indirect, and induced effects, the impact of Washington’s defense-related economy is considerable. Installation spending in 2009 resulted in an estimated $8.5 billion of economic activity within Washington State. DoD contracting, with “place of performance” in Washington State resulted in an estimated $3.7 billion in total output. The total defense activity is estimated to have created nearly $12.2 billion in total output in the State. This activity supported approximately 191,600 jobs and nearly $10.5 billion of labor income in the State in 2009.

To put these figures in context, consider that Washington State overall had 2,866,632 jobs covered through unemployment insurance and wages totaling $134.8 billion (Washington ESD, Workforce Explorer) in fiscal year 2009. Total jobs and labor income resulting from the economic impacts of defense spending (as defined in this analysis) are approximately 7% and 8% of State totals respectively. The overall gross domestic product (GDP) for the State in 2008 was $322.8 billion (BEA, U.S. Department of Commerce), meaning that total economic output resulting from defense spending is nearly 4% of the total State GDP.

Read the whole Berk report and get depressed.