This Washington
Pollster: King County "Should Be a Concern for Democrats" in Gov's Race
The latest poll numbers showing Republican Washington State Attorney General Rob McKenna beating US Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA,1) 46-39 in the 2012 governor's race contain some more grim news for Inslee: He's barely ahead in King County, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.
The Democrat is supposed to win King County. And Inslee does in the latest poll: 45-39. But here's some perspective: US Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) beat Republican challenger Dino Rossi in King County in 2010 64.59 to 34.91.
McKenna, a former King County Council member, who beat Democrat John Ladenburg (former Pierce County executive) 53-46 in King County in the 2008 attorney general election, supposedly represents the best GOP hope in years largely because he can siphon off the Democratic advantage in King County. What should we make of his 39 number?
Here's what Kevin Ingham, vice president for polling and research at polling firm Strategies 360, tells PubliCola:
Ultimately, Republicans need to be in the mid-40s in King County on election day to have any chance of winning. Interestingly, though, McKenna's favorability rating in King County is right at 40—which is higher than he scores in any other part of the state. Inslee's favorable in King County is 42 percent.
Asked their thoughts on the King County numbers, McKenna campaign manager Randy Pepple told us that "39-45 is a winning number in King County for a Republican in a statewide race."
Inslee's spokeswoman Jaime Smith says:
"At this early point in the race, you can’t read too much into the numbers. Ask me again what I think on September 19, 2012."
The Democrat is supposed to win King County. And Inslee does in the latest poll: 45-39. But here's some perspective: US Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) beat Republican challenger Dino Rossi in King County in 2010 64.59 to 34.91.
McKenna, a former King County Council member, who beat Democrat John Ladenburg (former Pierce County executive) 53-46 in King County in the 2008 attorney general election, supposedly represents the best GOP hope in years largely because he can siphon off the Democratic advantage in King County. What should we make of his 39 number?
Here's what Kevin Ingham, vice president for polling and research at polling firm Strategies 360, tells PubliCola:
The size of Inslee’s lead in King County should be a concern for Democrats. In 2004, Chris Gregoire beat Dino Rossi 58 percent to 40 percent in King County. At this point, McKenna has as much support as Rossi did, while Inslee has far less than Gregoire wound up with.
Ultimately, Republicans need to be in the mid-40s in King County on election day to have any chance of winning. Interestingly, though, McKenna's favorability rating in King County is right at 40—which is higher than he scores in any other part of the state. Inslee's favorable in King County is 42 percent.
Asked their thoughts on the King County numbers, McKenna campaign manager Randy Pepple told us that "39-45 is a winning number in King County for a Republican in a statewide race."
Inslee's spokeswoman Jaime Smith says:
"At this early point in the race, you can’t read too much into the numbers. Ask me again what I think on September 19, 2012."
