Seventeen months out, a new Elway Poll on the 2012 governor's race shows that Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna, who declared his candidacy last month, faces a tougher task than his Democratic opponent, US Rep. Jay Inslee, who also declared last month.

Washington voters preferred a Democrat to a Republican, 48 to 36 percent. And Independents leaned Democratic, 37 to 34.

More bad news for McKenna: His supposed trump card—his status as a moderate Republican—doesn't give him the edge that pundits assumed. In fact, it could be a problem for him.

Elway writes:

McKenna is seen as the most moderate Republican to run for governor in a generation. But moderate Republicans are the smallest team on the filed. McKenna must win over the lion's share of the undecided voters plus some moderate Democrats, while keeping the conservative Republicans on board. The ideology types do not suggest a clear path. Not only were progressives and liberals overwhelmingly inclined to vote for a Democrat but so were a majority  of populists. Only libertarians were inclined to vote Republican.

However, there's a positive footnote for McKenna re: that last factoid about libertarians.  Another new Elway poll showed that the libertarian bloc is resurgent and makes up the biggest piece of  the Washington electorate when it's diced up beyond Ds and Rs.

The poll also shows Gov. Chris Gregoire's positive ratings continue to drop, about a point per month, putting her at 36 percent positive right now and 58 percent negative (a slight uptick actually.)