Esther Handy, campaign manager for Protect Seattle Now, the anti-tunnel campaign, took issue with my post this morning accusing tunnel opponents of "cognitive dissonance" on the state's traffic projections and tolling numbers. (In short, I argued that it made little sense for tunnel opponents to categorically reject WSDOT's traffic projections for the tunnel while simultaneously accepting their projections for the number of cars that would pour onto downtown streets if the tunnel is tolled).

Handy's response:

The part that’s consistent is that WSDOT models all start with assumptions about how much we value and need to drive – and they consistently overstate that value.  That leads to overstating future growth in demand for driving, which we see in Clark [Williams-Derry, of Sightline]'s graph.

And it also leads to under-reporting diversion.  The same mistaken assumptions about our demand for driving, also mistakenly assume we would be willing to pay more to use a tolled facility than we actually will.

There are examples around the world of new tolled facilities financial plans falling apart because people are not willing to pay as much as projected. Vancouver and Australia are just two, in addition to our own Tacoma Narrows Bridge.

The bottom line is not whether WSDOT’s done the math right, it’s about their underlying assumptions that the models are built on.  Over-estimating demand for the tunnel and assuming their diversion number is low, at best, are both consistent with our point that this is a massive investment in a project that Seattle doesn’t need and won't use.

Also this morning, Handy's erstwhile boss (she's on leave to run the campaign, returning in the fall), city council member Mike O'Brien, called to raise similar objections to my piece. "The problem with WSDOT's numbers is that they assume we all want to drive and we're willing to pay to do so," O'Brien said.

Making matters worse, O'Brien added, there will be many alternative routes to get through downtown besides the tunnel. "They're taking a corridor that's going to be under capacity, and they're going to price it when there are a lot of alternatives that are free." If anything, he says somewhat facetiously, "they should be tolling everything but the tunnel."