According to political stats wiz Nate Silver, based on the latest election results, Republicans have a 99 percent chance of taking control of the US House (and gaining 60 seats); in the Senate, however, they stand only a 1.7 percent chance of taking over from the Democrats.

Earlier this evening, a friend had a curiously optimistic theory, which I think (based on memories of the 1994 Republican takeover and its aftermath) may be right: "Obama needs to lose one house of Congress if he wants to have a chance in 2012." Losing the House, according to this theory, is good for the Democrats, because they can't be solely to blame if things continue to go wrong. Bill Clinton did win reelection, after all.