That Washington
My 2010 Election Predictions
Republican groundswell? Don't believe the hype. I wasn't there in 1994 (well, I was there, but I was in kindergarten), so I don't know what a true GOP revolution is supposed to look like, but I'm skeptical that any of this Tea Party bluster is strong enough to blow down the house that Barack built. Not yet, anyway.
The initiatives:
1053 (two-thirds legislative majority for tax increases):
Pass
1082 (to allow private insurers into workers’ comp market):
Fail
1098 (high-earners’ income tax):
Fail
1100 (liquor privatization; leaving state liquor taxes alone and allowing volume discounts):
Pass
1105 (liquor privatization; removing state liquor taxes and disallowing volume discounts):
Fail
1107 (repealing the sales taxes on soda, candy, and bottled water):
Pass
R-52 (to pay for green retrofits for schools):
Fail
State House, 34th district:
Democrat Joe Fitzgibbon (over Democrat Mike Heavey)
State House, 27th district:
Democrat Laurie Jinkins (over Democrat Jake Fey)
State Supreme Court, Position 6:
Incumbent Richard Sanders (over challenger Charlie Wiggins)
US House, District 1:
Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee (over Republican challenger James Watkins)
US House, District 2:
Incumbent Rick Larsen (over Republican challenger John Koster)
US House, District 3:
Republican Jaime Herrera (over Democrat Denny Heck)
US House, District 4:
Republican incumbent Doc Hastings (over Democratic challenger Jay Clough)
US House, District 5:
Republican incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers (over Democratic challenger Darryl Romeyn)
US House, District 6:
Democratic incumbent Adam Smith (over Republican challenger Dick Muri)
US House, District 7:
Incumbent Democrat Jim McDermott (over Independent challenger Bob Jeffers-Schroder)
US House, District 8:
Democratic challenger Suzan DelBene (over Republican incumbent Dave Reichert)
US Senate
Incumbent Democrat Patty Murray (D) (over Republican challenger )
Plus: Republican Ken "it can't be rape if it's your ex-boyfriend" Buck against incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado (because I was born and raised in the Centennial State, although I'm also scared by the idea that Coloradans will elect racist demagogue Tom Tancredo to the governorship—too scared to make a prediction); incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer against Republican Carly Fiorina in California; Democrat Andrew Cuomo against Republican Carl Paladino in New York; incumbent Democrat Harry Reid over Republican Sharron Angle in Nevada; Republican Marco Rubio against Independent incumbent Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek; Republican Joe Miller over write-in Lisa Murkowski and Democrat Scott McAdams.
Final prediction: Nationally, Democrats lose six seats in the Senate, 40 seats in the House.
The initiatives:
1053 (two-thirds legislative majority for tax increases):
Pass
1082 (to allow private insurers into workers’ comp market):
Fail
1098 (high-earners’ income tax):
Fail
1100 (liquor privatization; leaving state liquor taxes alone and allowing volume discounts):
Pass
1105 (liquor privatization; removing state liquor taxes and disallowing volume discounts):
Fail
1107 (repealing the sales taxes on soda, candy, and bottled water):
Pass
R-52 (to pay for green retrofits for schools):
Fail
State House, 34th district:
Democrat Joe Fitzgibbon (over Democrat Mike Heavey)
State House, 27th district:
Democrat Laurie Jinkins (over Democrat Jake Fey)
State Supreme Court, Position 6:
Incumbent Richard Sanders (over challenger Charlie Wiggins)
US House, District 1:
Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee (over Republican challenger James Watkins)
US House, District 2:
Incumbent Rick Larsen (over Republican challenger John Koster)
US House, District 3:
Republican Jaime Herrera (over Democrat Denny Heck)
US House, District 4:
Republican incumbent Doc Hastings (over Democratic challenger Jay Clough)
US House, District 5:
Republican incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers (over Democratic challenger Darryl Romeyn)
US House, District 6:
Democratic incumbent Adam Smith (over Republican challenger Dick Muri)
US House, District 7:
Incumbent Democrat Jim McDermott (over Independent challenger Bob Jeffers-Schroder)
US House, District 8:
Democratic challenger Suzan DelBene (over Republican incumbent Dave Reichert)
US Senate
Incumbent Democrat Patty Murray (D) (over Republican challenger )
Plus: Republican Ken "it can't be rape if it's your ex-boyfriend" Buck against incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado (because I was born and raised in the Centennial State, although I'm also scared by the idea that Coloradans will elect racist demagogue Tom Tancredo to the governorship—too scared to make a prediction); incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer against Republican Carly Fiorina in California; Democrat Andrew Cuomo against Republican Carl Paladino in New York; incumbent Democrat Harry Reid over Republican Sharron Angle in Nevada; Republican Marco Rubio against Independent incumbent Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek; Republican Joe Miller over write-in Lisa Murkowski and Democrat Scott McAdams.
Final prediction: Nationally, Democrats lose six seats in the Senate, 40 seats in the House.
