That Washington
Murray Leads in New CNN/Time Poll. By Nine Points. But Candidates Tied With Independent Voters.
Earlier this week, a lot of folks were surprised and skeptical, PubliCola included, when a new Elway poll had U.S. Sen. Patty Murray ahead of GOP challenger Dino Rossi by nine points
, 50 to 41.
Not only had earlier polls—along with the latest Nate Silver numbers—shown Rossi ahead, but nine points?
However, today CNN/Time has a poll with Murray up 53 to 44, nine points. (The poll also has Sen. Harry Reid beating challenger Sharron Angle 42 to 41.)
Here are some of the details: voters making under $50,000 go with Murray 62 to 36; voters making above $50,000 go with Murray 51 to 46; Murray wins every age group as well, with her biggest margin in the 50 to 64 crowd, winning 55 percent to 42 percent. The closest spread on age is in the 35 to 49 crowd, where Murray holds a 1 point advantage, 50 to 49.
(There wasn't enough of a sample in the 18 to 34 set, which isn't a surprise. However, it's safe to assume that younger voters go with the Democrat.)
Rossi is right on Murray's heels, down by 1, 46 to Murray's 47 with Independent voters. Both candidates are cleaning it up with their respective bases. Murray's at 97 to 2 with Democratic voters and Rossi is at 95 to 5 among Republican voters.
Crosstabs, here.
The sample size was 1500 voters, 1300 registered voters, and 900 likely voters. There was a +/-3 on the results.
Not only had earlier polls—along with the latest Nate Silver numbers—shown Rossi ahead, but nine points?
However, today CNN/Time has a poll with Murray up 53 to 44, nine points. (The poll also has Sen. Harry Reid beating challenger Sharron Angle 42 to 41.)
Here are some of the details: voters making under $50,000 go with Murray 62 to 36; voters making above $50,000 go with Murray 51 to 46; Murray wins every age group as well, with her biggest margin in the 50 to 64 crowd, winning 55 percent to 42 percent. The closest spread on age is in the 35 to 49 crowd, where Murray holds a 1 point advantage, 50 to 49.
(There wasn't enough of a sample in the 18 to 34 set, which isn't a surprise. However, it's safe to assume that younger voters go with the Democrat.)
Rossi is right on Murray's heels, down by 1, 46 to Murray's 47 with Independent voters. Both candidates are cleaning it up with their respective bases. Murray's at 97 to 2 with Democratic voters and Rossi is at 95 to 5 among Republican voters.
Crosstabs, here.
The sample size was 1500 voters, 1300 registered voters, and 900 likely voters. There was a +/-3 on the results.
