That Washington
Extra Fizz: Josh is Wrong
Josh wrote Morning Fizz this morning. While we discussed (and I agree with) most of his predictions, there's one wild card in there that's just dead wrong: He predicted that David Castillo, one of two Republicans in the 3rd U.S. Congressional District race, will go through next week's primary, while the "anointed GOP candidate," Jaime Herrera, won't.
Josh tells me his argument is that Castillo has more individual donations (if less money) than Herrera, indicating grassroots support, and has more major endorsements than Herrera, including The Seattle Times.
Well, I'm not sure how many people in the 3rd Congressional District (Olympia, Longview, Vancouver) read the Seattle Times, but I'm betting it's fewer than read the big newspaper in the district, the Vancouver Columbian , which called Herrera "confident, informed, prepared and enthusiastic" in its dual endorsement of Herrera and Castillo.
Both candidates have impressive endorsements, but Herrera edges out her opponent in the caliber of her organizational (three county GOP groups, plus the realtors, the Farm Bureau, the builders' lobby), and individual endorsements (Slade Gorton, Sam Reed, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers).
She also has the edge in fundraising. As of July 28, Herrera had brought in $410,627, with $113,838 on hand. Castillo had raised $257,815, with just $47,915 on hand. And while Castillo definitely did have more individual contributions than Herrera when Josh last checked in , that's no longer true: Herrera has 193 contributions to Castillo's 174. And although Herrera's campaign said they couldn't release any recent polling data, a poll back in June showed her leading Castillo comfortably, 27 to 8 percent (the poll included Democrats as well as a third Republican, who also polled at 8 percent.)
Come watch me make fun of Josh's crazy prediction at our primary night party: Next Tuesday, August 17, at the Five Point, starting at 6 pm.
Josh tells me his argument is that Castillo has more individual donations (if less money) than Herrera, indicating grassroots support, and has more major endorsements than Herrera, including The Seattle Times.
Well, I'm not sure how many people in the 3rd Congressional District (Olympia, Longview, Vancouver) read the Seattle Times, but I'm betting it's fewer than read the big newspaper in the district, the Vancouver Columbian , which called Herrera "confident, informed, prepared and enthusiastic" in its dual endorsement of Herrera and Castillo.
Both candidates have impressive endorsements, but Herrera edges out her opponent in the caliber of her organizational (three county GOP groups, plus the realtors, the Farm Bureau, the builders' lobby), and individual endorsements (Slade Gorton, Sam Reed, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers).
She also has the edge in fundraising. As of July 28, Herrera had brought in $410,627, with $113,838 on hand. Castillo had raised $257,815, with just $47,915 on hand. And while Castillo definitely did have more individual contributions than Herrera when Josh last checked in , that's no longer true: Herrera has 193 contributions to Castillo's 174. And although Herrera's campaign said they couldn't release any recent polling data, a poll back in June showed her leading Castillo comfortably, 27 to 8 percent (the poll included Democrats as well as a third Republican, who also polled at 8 percent.)
Come watch me make fun of Josh's crazy prediction at our primary night party: Next Tuesday, August 17, at the Five Point, starting at 6 pm.
