Morning Fizz
Does Didier Crack 10 Percent?
We've made our primary election endorsements.
Now, here are some primary election predictions.
1) Who makes it through in the hotly contested race in the 34th Legislative District (W. Seattle, Burien, Maury, Vashon)? We say: Mike Heavey and Joe Fitzgibbon.
2) Does Clint Didier crack 10 percent? Yes.
And what does that mean? Conventional wisdom says Didier's voters go to Rossi in the general—and indeed, if Didier's over ten, that's bad for Murray.
We say: A strong showing for Didier actually hurts Rossi because it means Rossi isn't generating enough excitement on his own. The further away from Murray Rossi is, the worse for him. Big Didier numbers pull him down.
Meanwhile, Murray needs to be in the low 40s to be credible. We think she'll be there. Rossi needs to be within a few points of Murray. We're not sure he will be.
3) Does U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert crack 50 percent? We say: No, which is bad news for Reichert given that his lead Democratic opponent, Suzan DelBene, is an unknown who has done zippo TV and spent barely $10,000 on lit, t-shirts, signs, and stickers.
4) How well does Tea Party candidate John Koster do in his race against Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen in the 2nd Congressional District (Northwest Washington)?
Koster needs to be within 10 points of Larsen. We say: He will be, despite having raised just $400,000 to Larsen's $1.1 million.
5) Does Nick Harper, the insurgent Democrat who's challenging incumbent Democratic state Sen. Jean Berkey (D-38, Everett), hit 25 percent? If he does, game on. We say: Yes.
6) Does incumbent progressive Democratic state Rep. Geoff Simpson (D-47, Kent, Renton Highlands, Black Diamond) come in first against his two GOP challengers? We say: No, Simpson comes in second behind his mainstream Republican opponent Nancy Wyatt.
(We wish there was exit polling in state legislative races. We'd wanna see how Simpson does among women. Simpson has been charged by the Seattle City Attorney with gross misdemeanor assault in connection with an alleged domestic violence incident involving his ex-wife.)
7) Is the $275,000 that's been spent by progressive groups in independent ads to oust conservative State Supreme Court Justice Jim Johnson enough to do the trick? We say: No.
8 ) Surprise of the night: Anointed GOP candidate Jaime Herrera in the 3rd U.S. Congressional District (Southwest Washington) doesn't go through. The other Republican, David Castillo, does.
Nerds unite on Primary night. We're having an election party at the 5 Point Cafe at 5th and Denny.
Sponsors of the nerdy night include: Northwest Passage, Strategies 360, the Washington Bus, and Sound View Strategies.
Now, here are some primary election predictions.
1) Who makes it through in the hotly contested race in the 34th Legislative District (W. Seattle, Burien, Maury, Vashon)? We say: Mike Heavey and Joe Fitzgibbon.
2) Does Clint Didier crack 10 percent? Yes.
And what does that mean? Conventional wisdom says Didier's voters go to Rossi in the general—and indeed, if Didier's over ten, that's bad for Murray.
We say: A strong showing for Didier actually hurts Rossi because it means Rossi isn't generating enough excitement on his own. The further away from Murray Rossi is, the worse for him. Big Didier numbers pull him down.
Meanwhile, Murray needs to be in the low 40s to be credible. We think she'll be there. Rossi needs to be within a few points of Murray. We're not sure he will be.
3) Does U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert crack 50 percent? We say: No, which is bad news for Reichert given that his lead Democratic opponent, Suzan DelBene, is an unknown who has done zippo TV and spent barely $10,000 on lit, t-shirts, signs, and stickers.
4) How well does Tea Party candidate John Koster do in his race against Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen in the 2nd Congressional District (Northwest Washington)?
Koster needs to be within 10 points of Larsen. We say: He will be, despite having raised just $400,000 to Larsen's $1.1 million.
5) Does Nick Harper, the insurgent Democrat who's challenging incumbent Democratic state Sen. Jean Berkey (D-38, Everett), hit 25 percent? If he does, game on. We say: Yes.
6) Does incumbent progressive Democratic state Rep. Geoff Simpson (D-47, Kent, Renton Highlands, Black Diamond) come in first against his two GOP challengers? We say: No, Simpson comes in second behind his mainstream Republican opponent Nancy Wyatt.
(We wish there was exit polling in state legislative races. We'd wanna see how Simpson does among women. Simpson has been charged by the Seattle City Attorney with gross misdemeanor assault in connection with an alleged domestic violence incident involving his ex-wife.)
7) Is the $275,000 that's been spent by progressive groups in independent ads to oust conservative State Supreme Court Justice Jim Johnson enough to do the trick? We say: No.
8 ) Surprise of the night: Anointed GOP candidate Jaime Herrera in the 3rd U.S. Congressional District (Southwest Washington) doesn't go through. The other Republican, David Castillo, does.
Nerds unite on Primary night. We're having an election party at the 5 Point Cafe at 5th and Denny.
Sponsors of the nerdy night include: Northwest Passage, Strategies 360, the Washington Bus, and Sound View Strategies.
