Several contradictory polls on a possible Dino Rossi vs. Sen. Patty Murray race have appeared in the last week, the most recent one today from Elway which has Murray ahead 51 to 34. An earlier Survey USA Today had Rossi beating Murray by 10 points.

Numbers nerd Nate Silver, who sifts through a couple of more Rossi v. Murray polls, including another brand new one— Rasmumssen poll that has Rossi and Murray tied—tries to get to the bottom of it all—for example, he points out that the Survey USA Poll with Rossi far in the lead, oversamples gun owners.
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