Morning Fizz

Poll: Inslee Tops 50 for First Time, Minimum Wage Edging Toward Magical 60 Percent

Latest Elway polling shows promising year for Democrats. Duh.

By Josh Feit October 25, 2016

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Stuart Elway released his final polling before the election yesterday. (Sorry, no numbers on Sound Transit’s light rail extension measure, Prop. 1.)

With Trump heading up the GOP ticket and some low-profile Republican candidates in the big races (governor, U.S. senate), the results shouldn’t be too surprising in a state that 538’s Nate Silver gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 97.6 percent chance of winning presidential election: Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Inslee topped 50 percent for the first time in Elway’s tracking and now leads Republican former Seattle commissioner Bill Bryant 51 to 39, while incumbent Democratic veteran U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) leads former GOP state party chair Chris Vance 58-34.

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As for that presidential race, Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump 48-31; a noteworthy stat in that race, though: 89 percent of Democrats are voting for Clinton while just 77 percent of Republicans say they’re voting for Trump—and seven percent of those Republicans are voting for Clinton. Clinton’s lead appears to be about Clinton herself—as opposed to a block Trump vote. Elway writes: “Clinton’s rally is further evidenced by the proportion of her voters who were positive about her: 45 percent of Clinton supporters said their vote was intended to 'put her in the White House, while 27 percent said the purpose of their vote was to 'keep Trump out of the White House.'”  

Elway also found that 90 percent of Democrats felt that Clinton represented the views of their party while just 62 percent of Republicans felt that Trump represented the views of their party. Just wow on that stat. The GOP appears to be in for a reckoning after this election.

Indeed, Democrats are leading in four out of the six races for statewide offices, including super green Hilary Franz, who’s up 36-31 over Republican Steve McLaughlin in the race for commissioner of public lands. Republican incumbent secretary of state—the only statewide GOP official in Washington—Kim Wyman, however, is leading her Democratic challenger former Seattle city council member Tina Podlodowski 41 to 37.

As for the statewide initiatives….

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If you go by the 60 percent rule (initiatives typically need a strong 60 percent showing in polling to actually carry the day at the ballot box thanks to conventional wisdom that undecided voters translate into no votes on measures), only a couple of this year’s six initiatives appear headed for a win, including the gun control measure I-1491 and the minimum wage increase, I-1433. The gun measure, which allows police, friends, family, and housemates to get a court-approved order to temporarily prevent someone who they believe poses a safety risk from having a gun, is up 67 to 18. The minimum wage measure, which iteratively raises the state minimum wage to $13.50 by 2020 is closing in on 60, leading 58 to 31, up from 57 to 31 in August.  

None of the other measures, including one that would put a tax on carbon (see my criticisms of that deeply flawed attempt to meet a laudable goal here), are even at 50. I-732, the carbon tax, is at 40-32.

And this just in from the secretary of state's office:

Happy to report that nearly 135,000 Washington ballots have been received by the counties! That is 3.2 percent of the 4.24m sent out. We’re thinking 80 percent eventual return, or more. So here we go, with Election Day just two weeks away!

As for Seattle's federal race, the contest between progressive Democratic state senator Pramila Jayapal (D-37, Southeast Seattle) and progressive Democratic state representative Brady Walkinshaw (D-43, Capitol Hill), there's no polling, but please listen for me on KUOW's All Things Considered where I weigh in on the Walkinshaw ads bashing Jayapal's record. My take: His ads aren't "negative," as Jayapal claims, but Jayapal's record is hardly lousy, as Walkinshaw claims.


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