Afternoon Jolt

This post has been corrected. Murray leads with 22 percent of the plus-50 vote not 43 percent as I originally said.  And, as we said, McGinn does the worst with the plus-50 vote, though at 17 percent, not 34 percent as I originally said. The SurveyUSA/KING 5 poll still significantly overestimates the younger voters and underestimates the older voters, inflating McGinn's numbers. 

1. In addition to the toplines of the latest KING 5 poll, which show Mayor Mike McGinn stuck in the low 20s while undecideds and state Sen. Ed Murray (D-43, Capitol Hill) are gaining ground, (Murray gained seven points to reach 22 percent vs. McGinn's 21 percent), there's some more bad news for McGinn buried in the crosstabs: The poll oversampled younger voters—voters who lean McGinn's way.

56 percent of the voters in the poll are under 50. And 31 percent are between 18 and 35. Compared to the last primary (when just under 10 percent of voters were between the ages of 18 and 35 and a full third were 65 and older), today's KING 5 poll is out of sync with who's likely to vote.

Compared to the last primary (when just under 10 percent of voters were between the ages of 18 and 35 and a full third were 65 and older), today's KING 5 poll is out of sync with who's likely to vote.

And McGinn got 27 percent of the overrepresented under-35 vote, higher than any candidate, while Murray scored highest among the underrepresented over-50 crowd, getting 22 percent.

Conversely, McGinn did the worst, of the top contenders, among the older crowd, getting 17 percent.

With all that in mind, you have to wonder: If the poll actually looked more like the anticipated older electorate, will McGinn get hit on both sides—losing young voters while getting stuck with  more of the voters he doesn't do well with? Steinbrueck and Harrell tied for second best with the plus-50 voters, getting18  percent. (They bomb with younger voters at nine percent for Steinbrueck and zero for Harrell.)

Murray did the second best with younger voters, scoring 21 percent. 

More bad news for McGinn in the crosstabs: Only 32 percent approve of the job McGinn is doing while 50 percent disapprove. As opposed to his election numbers, which basically matched his 22 percent in the last poll, his approve/disapprove numbers are moving ... in the wrong direction. In KING 5's May poll, 37 percent approved of the job he was doing and 49 percent disapproved.

There's been a perception that McGinn has had a good run lately, issuing a weekly barrage of sanguine press releases, testifying in congress against coal, overseeing a hopping economic recovery. Today's numbers do not match that perception.

There are lots of details in the crosstabs. Check them out here. One saving grace in there for McGinn: 88 percent of those polled were reached on a landline (as opposed to 12 percent reached on cell). That data point tempers the theory that McGinn voters were oversampled.

McGinn's spokesman John Wyble doesn't believe the KING 5 poll oversampled McGinn supporters. He says the KING 5 numbers mirror what McGinn internal polls show: Murray moving up and McGinn staying in place. That leads to a fight for the undecideds, who Wyble says are feeling out the other candidates and, given that Murray's rise has coincided with a decline in Peter Steinbrueck's numbers, indicate that Murray is plucking Steinbreuck voters (voters already inclined against McGinn) not undecideds. Undecided voters won the KING 5 poll at 25 percent.

Wyble adds that the KING 5 poll happened before the Stranger endorsed McGinn (which the Stranger pointed out today as well). Wyble says tracking voters after the Times Murray endorsement (which came last Sunday), but not the Stranger McGinn endorsement, which came yesterday, misses a bump for McGinn. (The poll was conducted between Monday and this morning, technically after the Stranger endorsement, but probably not enough after the McGinn endorsement to measure its effect.)

I'll be on KING 5 tonight talking about the poll.

Add another one to Murray's growing list of endorsments, Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest.2. One explanation for Murray's rise in the poll could be all the endorsements he's been getting: the Seattle Times, Ron Sims, City Attorney Pete Holmes, the Washington Conservation Voters, the Seattle chamber. 

Add another one today: Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest.

Planned Parenthood leader Elaine Rose issued a statement: “After thoughtful consideration, the Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest Board of Directors choose to endorse Ed Murray in the Seattle Mayor’s race given his leadership on issues important to women including the Reproductive Parity Act, family planning funding and marriage equality."

Says Wyble: "That's because of Murray's relationships in Olympia. McGinn is incredibly pro-choice."

 

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