Election 2012

McKenna Camp Has Theories. Inslee Camp Has Increasing Lead.

By Josh Feit November 8, 2012


With Democrat Jay Inslee putting together his gubernatorial transition team—he now leads his GOP rival Rob McKenna by about 2,000 more votes than he did on election night—the McKenna camp is posting videos explaing their comeback theories.

McKenna campaign manager Randy Pepple followed McKenna's own YouTube release yesterday, reiterating their theory—later ballots are breaking for McKenna. And, indeed, there is some proof of that tonight.

Seattle Times reporter Brian Rosenthal, tracking the numbers closely, tweeted tonight that in Snohomish County, for example, McKenna took 52.6 percent of the latest batch up from 48.1 percent of the first batch on election night.

And, indeed, McKenna's overall perecentage of the vote is increasing. He started out on election night at 48.23 and climbed to 48.94 early this evening. 

But the Inslee camp has a serious rejoinder: "They're trailing by more votes than they were on election day," says Inslee spokesman Sterling Clifford.

And that's true. On election night, Inslee led by 49,000 votes. As the votes come in tonight, Inslee is up by 50,000.

(So why is the percentage gap decreasing? Simple: The difference between the candidates' votes represents a smaller percentage of the number of total votes counted as more and more votes come in.)

More votes are scheduled to come in from King County tonight. And so far, vote-rich blue King County is defying McKenna's theory—and the trends elsewhere. In the 4:30 drop today, McKenna got a smaller percentage of the votes (39.5) than he did yesterday (40.6).

Here's Pepple's video:

And here's the Inslee camp's rejoinder: "Rob needs to get 50,000 more votes than Jay, and with every drop, there are fewer and fewer opportunities for him to do so." 

 UPDATE: King County's 8:30 drop confirms both the McKenna camp's theory and the Inslee camp's theory. McKenna's percentage of the latest batch of 35,103 votes was his highest yet—he got 43 percent; his best showing to date. But the count also bumped up Inslee's overall lead statewide: Insless now leads McKenna by 54,794 votes. Inslee's lead is now 5,000 votes bigger than it was on election night.

Inslee has 1,225,497 votes statewide to McKenna's 1,170,703. That's 51.14 to 48.86.

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