Opinion
Unsolved Mystery
That King 5 has a new poll out today showing Dem Jay Inslee solidly ahead in the governor's race, 48-42, is hardly a surprise. While certain (pro-McKenna? pro-horse race?) members of the press have continued to cling with a white-knuckled death grip to the "closest gov race in the nation will come down to the wire" meme, most observers have long ago processed the fact that Inslee has opened up a small, but seemingly durable, lead over Republican Rob McKenna.
If this race is close, it is close int he same way the Obama-Romney race is close, i.e. the R could still win, but it will require a major shift in momentum for that to happen, and time for both Romney and McKenna is running short.
But the big question is: Why? To what should we attribute Inslee's rise?
Is it a timely national surge of economic optimism that is boosting Democrats across the board? Is it the GOP's (and McKenna's) embrace of social/cultural conservatism, that Nate Silver recently pointed out has over the last 25 years severely damaged the Republican Party in Washington State?
Is mistakes, compounded by underwhelming TV ads, by McKenna and his campaign and/or brilliant campaign strategy by the Inslee camp?
Is Inslee's greater likeability making the difference, as Fizz suggested this morning? Is it that McKenna's too big forehead makes him seem to many voters (yes, I am sort of in this camp) like a nerdy space alien visiting planet Earth for the express purpose of lecturing you about your manifest inadequacies? Is it some combination of all of the above?
I honestly don't know the answer to this question. I have been trying to figure it out, but remain in the dark. If you can enlighten me, please do.
And now for a quick note about why I'm appearing on PubliCola.
Josh has asked me to regularly throw some shorter, pithier posts up about local and national politics, so like it or not you'll be seeing more from me going forward.
For those who do not know, I helped Josh start PubliCola back in late 2008, and I'm still listed on the Cola masthead as "Spiritual Adviser." I once fancied myself a journalist, but no longer. I am now a Democratic political and public affairs consultant.
Treat these posts as coming from that perspective, and as my personal opinions -- nothing more, or less. If I have a direct conflict on something I write about, I will strive to flag it for you, but if you want to discount everything I say as in some way compromised, well, be my guest. Because contrary to the ridiculous Republican claims that America is rapidly sliding into socialism, this is still a free country.
If this race is close, it is close int he same way the Obama-Romney race is close, i.e. the R could still win, but it will require a major shift in momentum for that to happen, and time for both Romney and McKenna is running short.
But the big question is: Why? To what should we attribute Inslee's rise?
Is it a timely national surge of economic optimism that is boosting Democrats across the board? Is it the GOP's (and McKenna's) embrace of social/cultural conservatism, that Nate Silver recently pointed out has over the last 25 years severely damaged the Republican Party in Washington State?
Is mistakes, compounded by underwhelming TV ads, by McKenna and his campaign and/or brilliant campaign strategy by the Inslee camp?
Is Inslee's greater likeability making the difference, as Fizz suggested this morning? Is it that McKenna's too big forehead makes him seem to many voters (yes, I am sort of in this camp) like a nerdy space alien visiting planet Earth for the express purpose of lecturing you about your manifest inadequacies? Is it some combination of all of the above?
I honestly don't know the answer to this question. I have been trying to figure it out, but remain in the dark. If you can enlighten me, please do.
And now for a quick note about why I'm appearing on PubliCola.
Josh has asked me to regularly throw some shorter, pithier posts up about local and national politics, so like it or not you'll be seeing more from me going forward.
For those who do not know, I helped Josh start PubliCola back in late 2008, and I'm still listed on the Cola masthead as "Spiritual Adviser." I once fancied myself a journalist, but no longer. I am now a Democratic political and public affairs consultant.
Treat these posts as coming from that perspective, and as my personal opinions -- nothing more, or less. If I have a direct conflict on something I write about, I will strive to flag it for you, but if you want to discount everything I say as in some way compromised, well, be my guest. Because contrary to the ridiculous Republican claims that America is rapidly sliding into socialism, this is still a free country.
