With two weeks to go before election day, a new Elway Poll shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna leading among likely voters, 47 to 45 percent, but still within the 5 percent margin of error. Eight percent of voters remain undecided. 

This is big news for McKenna, who had been leading comfortably all year, until Inslee started hitting the airwaves over the summer and took the lead. Indeed, the last Elway poll had Inslee ahead 44-41. Other recent polling has shown Inslee ahead as well; Survey USA had Inslee leading 47-44 and Rasmussen Reports showed Inslee leading 47-45. A more recent Strategies 360 poll showed a dead heat, 46-46.

Some interesting findings from the new Elway survey: 

• Inslee voters are generally more partisan than McKenna voters, with 30 percent saying they support him because he is a Democrat and just 7 percent saying they support him for "philosophical" reasons. Among McKenna supporters, just 18 percent said they supported him because he is a Republican, and 24 percent saying they support his philosophy—that is, the fact that he is conservative and believes in smaller government.

• Inslee supporters were more likely to say they supported him based on his position on specific issues, including the environment, health care, education, and women's issues. 

If Elway's numbers are overestimating the number of women who just decided to suddenly switch parties, they could be overrepresenting the number of female McKenna voters, a factor that would obviously swing the poll in McKenna's favor.

• Speaking of women's issues, the Elway Poll did not find the same gender gap as the one at the national level, where women are supporting President Obama by a historically lopsided margin. Here in Washington State, just 39 percent of women said they identify as Democrats, and 31 percent said they were Republican. A month ago, 52 percent of women identified as Democrats and 20 percent as Republicans.

However, a caveat on those numbers about women. They represent a significant shift from just one month ago not just in who women said they were voting for, but what party they say they identify with in general. A 13-point shift, while technically possible, seems statistically unlikely when it comes to something as significant as party affiliation (as opposed to who a voter plans to support in a specific race). Elway takes its sample from "likely voters," which it defines as people who have voted in one or more of the last four elections. 

If Elway's numbers are overestimating the number of women who just decided to suddenly switch parties, they could be overrepresenting the number of female McKenna voters, a factor that would obviously swing the poll in McKenna's favor. 

• In other races for statewide office, Democratic AG candidate Bob Ferguson narrowly leads his Republican opponent, Reagan Dunn, 38 to 36; Democratic Secretary of state candidate Kathleen Drew is tied with her Republican opponent, Kim Wyman, 34-34; Democratic state auditor candidate Troy Kelley leads his Republican opponent James Watkins 34 to 29; and Democratic Lieutenant Governor Brad Owen leads his Republican opponent Bill Finkbeiner 42 to 32. 

• All of the ballot measures are close. R-74, the gay-marriage proposal, leads 49 "yes," 45 "no"; I-502, marijuana legalization, leads 48 "yes," 44 "no," I-1185, reinstituting a rule requiring a two-thirds vote of the legislature to raise taxes, leads 49 "yes," 30 "no"; and I-1240, charter schools, leads 48 "yes," 35 "no." 

Of course, all those numbers include many undecided voters (how voters could be undecided on gay marriage or pot by now remains anyone's guess), and, in close races, at least, could swing either way.