2012 Election
Afternoon Jolt: Secretary of State's Office Says Turnout Predictions "Probably Optimistic"
Today's winner: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jay Inslee.
The Inslee camp has tried to lower expectations going into tonight's primary by noting that the vote would consist of primary, not general, election voters. The theory being that traditional primary voters are more conservative, which will benefit his Republican opponent Rob McKenna.
It looks like they'll be able to use that line tonight. According to Secretary of State Sam Reed's spokesman Dave Ammons, turnout may well be lower than the 46 percent the state originally projected.
If he wins tonight, Inslee will have defied low expectations. And if he loses, he's got his story and he's sticking to it.
Ammons tells PubliCola that Reed's initial projection of 46 percent voter turnout is "probably optimistic" based on low vote-by-mail turnout so far.
"Return rates have been pretty slow around the state, as far as we can tell," Ammons says. "We hope people are using drop boxes or last-minute mail."[pullquote]"The ballot comes right to your home. You have to literally stumble over it on the way to your cereal. It took me all of five minutes to fill mine out."---Secretary of State spokesman Dave Ammons[/pullquote]
If you can't get your ballot in the mail before the final pickup today, you can drop it off at a drop box until 8:00 tonight; a list of drop boxes for King County is available at King County Elections , and information for other counties can be found at the Secretary of State's web site.
Ammons says the state assumed that people would be more likely to vote this year because of the high-profile gubernatorial and statewide elections, and because of the unprecedented TV-ad assault this primary election season. "If you can't get excited about elections this year, when will you?" Ammons says.
Additionally, he notes that since all registered voters now get their ballots in the mail, it "astonishes me" that so many people would choose not to vote. "The ballot comes right to your home," he says, sounding exasperated. "You have to literally stumble over it on the way to your cereal. It took me all of five minutes to fill mine out."
One issue, Ammons says, might be the fact that the state moved the primary back to the beginning of August from the third week in August, when many people are on vacation. (It used to be in September). The secretary of state's office tried to get the legislature to move it back even further, to June (before kids are out of school), but legislators balked, in part because they're barred from raising money until after the legislative session ends.
The Inslee camp has tried to lower expectations going into tonight's primary by noting that the vote would consist of primary, not general, election voters. The theory being that traditional primary voters are more conservative, which will benefit his Republican opponent Rob McKenna.
It looks like they'll be able to use that line tonight. According to Secretary of State Sam Reed's spokesman Dave Ammons, turnout may well be lower than the 46 percent the state originally projected.
If he wins tonight, Inslee will have defied low expectations. And if he loses, he's got his story and he's sticking to it.
Ammons tells PubliCola that Reed's initial projection of 46 percent voter turnout is "probably optimistic" based on low vote-by-mail turnout so far.
"Return rates have been pretty slow around the state, as far as we can tell," Ammons says. "We hope people are using drop boxes or last-minute mail."[pullquote]"The ballot comes right to your home. You have to literally stumble over it on the way to your cereal. It took me all of five minutes to fill mine out."---Secretary of State spokesman Dave Ammons[/pullquote]
If you can't get your ballot in the mail before the final pickup today, you can drop it off at a drop box until 8:00 tonight; a list of drop boxes for King County is available at King County Elections , and information for other counties can be found at the Secretary of State's web site.
Ammons says the state assumed that people would be more likely to vote this year because of the high-profile gubernatorial and statewide elections, and because of the unprecedented TV-ad assault this primary election season. "If you can't get excited about elections this year, when will you?" Ammons says.
Additionally, he notes that since all registered voters now get their ballots in the mail, it "astonishes me" that so many people would choose not to vote. "The ballot comes right to your home," he says, sounding exasperated. "You have to literally stumble over it on the way to your cereal. It took me all of five minutes to fill mine out."
One issue, Ammons says, might be the fact that the state moved the primary back to the beginning of August from the third week in August, when many people are on vacation. (It used to be in September). The secretary of state's office tried to get the legislature to move it back even further, to June (before kids are out of school), but legislators balked, in part because they're barred from raising money until after the legislative session ends.
