2012 Election
PubliCola Friday Q&A: Rob McKenna's Campaign Manager
Politico has been tracking Washington State's gubernatorial race month to month, typically giving Republican Washington State Attorney General Rob McKenna the edge. It was not surprising, though, after the latest polling had his Democratic rival Jay Inslee up for the first time ever, that they declared July: "Advantage Jay Inslee
" under the headline "In Governor Races, July Month of Underdog,"
Nobody would have expected this just a few months ago, when Inslee didn't appear ready for prime time, while his brainiac opponent McKenna consistently led in the polls and appeared more well-versed in state issues. Additionally, McKenna has cultivated an image as a moderate, something that has hurt the usual Democratic game plan of scaring Washington State voters into thinking every Republican candidate is Michele Bachmann.
Here's what else Politico said: "The next test is which contender will net more votes in Tuesday’s primary."
Well, I don't think the McKenna campaign, which is being run by longtime GOP strategist (and former Seattle Times sports writer) Randy Pepple, is looking forward to the August rankings. Inslee shocked many by winning big on Tuesday night, 46.6 to 43.3.
For this week's Cola Q&A, we caught up with Pepple, an irascible, talkative operative who thinks Inslee's comeback kid narrative is, as he told us on election night, "complete B.S."
PubliCola: You guys were at 35 percent in King County. Conventional wisdom says Republicans need to be over 40 percent in King County to win statewide. Isn’t 35 percent a pretty bad showing for a former King County Council member who got 53 percent in King County in 2008 in his statewide run for attorney general? Is this devastating for Rob, as the Democrats said on Tuesday night?
Randy Pepple: Of course not. The [2008] numbers from King County that you cited were from when Rob was an incumbent running for re-election, not when he was running for an open seat. To compare apples to apples, look at what Rob got in 2004 when he was running in an open seat and the combined Republican total was 38 percent statewide, and he came on to win.
[Editor's note: McKenna got 46 percent in King County in the 2004 general election.]
The turnout was favoring the Democrats in this [year's] primary. We knew that. That’s why we held back resources and just made sure we got into the top two.
PubliCola: You called the Democratic analysis that the primary election brings out more conservative voters, which would seem to make Inslee’s victory even worse for McKenna, "B.S." Explain.
Pepple: Well, the Inslee campaign sent out a memo on July 1 to set out a narrative that Congressman Inslee would not be the leading vote getter in the primary because somehow we had an older, more conservative electorate in the primary and that was the tradition. They called the primary electorate "substantially more conservative."[pullquote]"The Democrats laid out data points for why Inslee would come in second in the primary. But all of them were fabricated. They were just false."[/pullquote]
And they laid out data points for why that was true. But all of them were fabricated. They were just false. They lacked context. The first one was that the Republican candidates combined for 20,000 votes more than the Democrats in the 2010 senate [primary] race. What they failed to point out is, the Republican candidates didn’t get to 50 percent in that senate race because of the presence of the Democrats and the four minor parties. So how does that show a "substantially" more conservative turnout if the Republican senate candidates don’t even get a majority of the vote?
The other example from 2010 was they said, "Well, [Democratic 2nd Congressional District Rep.] Rick Larsen finished behind [Republican] John Koster but came on to win, so that proves that there were more conservatives out there." Well, no. They left out the fact that there was another Democrat in the race against Larsen, so the combined Democrat turnout was 52.37 percent. How does that show a conservative turnout in the primary?
They pointed out that [Democratic state treasurer] Jim McIntire finished under 40 percent in 2008, and that shows that it was a more conservative turnout then. No, Jim McIntire had another Democratic opponent in the primary; the total Democrat primary total was 54.66 percent. How does that show that it was a more conservative turnout?
The reality of primaries in Washington State today is that the Democrats start with an edge in self-identified partisans. In other words, more people in Washington State when asked, “Are you a Republican or Democrat?" will say Democrat than they will say Republican.
And it’s not just the pollsters that you can deduce that from. Just look at the number of people who identified as partisans who signed up to participate in the 2008 presidential primaries. They had to ask for a specific ballot—a Democrat or a Republican ballot. And indeed, 56 percent of the folks asked for a Democrat ballot, 44 percent Republican.[pullquote]"The best case scenario for us was to come out with a money advantage. And that’s what we did."[/pullquote]
All those data points told me we got a slight Democratic primary edge. In a memo I sent out prior to the election, I said 53.47 is probably the turnout model. And indeed, it’s turning out to be 51.47 and a couple points for the independents.
The salient point here is the Inslee people needed to have a win, so they put out a narrative to the media, that well they wouldn’t finish first. So they created a false narrative knowing in all probability that they would finish first, so then they could claim this stunning upset with devastating results to McKenna. And that's what I meant by pure B.S. [pullquote]"And that’s what I meant by pure B.S."[/pullquote]
They’ve got a communications director [former Jerry Brown spokesman Sterling Clifford of California] who’s from out of state. He’s never been through a Washington primary, so he can say, "Oh yeah, this is going to attract more conservatives in this primary." And people believe him, even though he provided no proof to back it up.
PubliCola: Regardless of spin, they won on Tuesday night.
Pepple: Oh, absolutely. Hey, they got the most votes. They gain some momentum from that. What I am pointing out is they were trying to set themselves up as huge underdogs devastating McKenna. And that is just an inaccurate assessment of the situation. They were going to finish first. They spent more money to finish first. They were focused on finishing first. I looked at the dynamics of the primary, and I said we are not going to be the leading vote-getter in this primary, so what the best-case scenario for us is to come out with a money advantage. And that’s what we did.
PubliCola: It appears that Rob had a bad summer---running away from KIRO TV's Essex Porter, telling a woman who asked him about reproductive rights to "get a job"...
Pepple: Telling a Democrat volunteer...
PubliCola: And Tweetgate , where a McKenna staffer was caught sending out racist and ageist tweets. Are we seeing Rob McKenna crack under pressure?
Pepple: That sounds like a Democratic question, so [state Democratic Party chair] Dwight Pelz is evidently on the line asking the questions now. One, you’re stretching back a little bit on one of those, so to say it was part of the summer is a bit of a stretch.
And the Tweetgate incident, as you put it, had nothing to do with Rob. It had to do with someone who was working on our staff, so I’m not sure how that could be equated to Rob, as you say, cracking under pressure.[pullquote]Are we seeing Rob McKenna crack under pressure?[/pullquote]
The Essex incident was Essex Porter chasing after Rob. Rob walked down a staircase and walked out to his car. Essex made it look like Rob was running away when it was Essex who was running. And if you listen to that tape, we had promised Essex the access to Rob that he wanted. We said, "We’ll have Rob answer your questions." But for whatever reason, and you can ask Essex what his reason was, he was insisting that he determine the time and place of the interview, as opposed to our campaign.
Rob did not run away from Essex Porter. Essex Porter chased down Rob when he was walking to his car.
PubliCola: What the TweetGate thing had to do with Rob was that there was some hesitancy to move swiftly and fire the woman from staff.[pullquote]"Essex Porter chased down Rob when he was walking to his car."[/pullquote]
Pepple: That is also a false claim. From the time that the offensive Tweets were [made public by the media] until the time when the staff member resigned was less than 48 hours. That is not hesitancy.
Then I contacted members of our Asian-American Coalition and said, "What do you think is most appropriate here?" And I was gathering information from the people I thought were most affected by this in their communities to get their thoughts. And I suspended her without pay while I was doing that, and ultimately, I said, "She is going to come into you and apologize to the coalition." When she did so, I accepted her resignation. And all of that took place in less than 48 hours.
So there is a narrative out there that wants to make this a political issue, that somehow this is about Rob McKenna, when in fact it’s about management. And I was managing the situation.
PubliCola: The other big thing I realize I left off from the bummer summer list is the Affordable Care Act ruling. Rob lost that. How does that play out for him?[pullquote]"Rob’s contention that the ACA violated the Commerce Clause was upheld by the Supreme Court."[/pullquote]
Pepple: Well, actually, Rob’s contention that the ACA violated the Commerce Clause was upheld by the Supreme Court. What they decided, what Chief Justice John Roberts and the other four members of the majority decided, was that it was a tax, and that it was legal under the taxing authority. So from Rob’s perspective, it was a victory for federalism. The point that he was making is that you can’t just have the federal government tell the states what they must do. That violates the context of federalism, and the Supreme Court agreed with that. And they said, however, Congress has the right to tax.
PubliCola: Rob had a good sound bite on the tricky gay marriage issue, which was that his position was exactly the same as Democratic President Obama. But that has now changed, with Obama's statement that he supports gay marriage. Are we going to see Rob follow the president again and "evolve" on that issue?[pullquote]"Rob McKenna has said that he supports traditional marriage, and that is a tenet of his faith. Basically, his position will not change."[/pullquote]
Pepple: Rob McKenna has said that he supports traditional marriage, and that is a tenet of his faith. Basically, his position will not change. And the president agrees with him on this, that this is an issue that should be left up to the states. This is one that the voters of this state are capable of deciding, and they’ll decide it in November. And Rob has said how he’ll be voting. But he also said he will carry out the will of the people as they vote on this issue in November.
PubliCola: Social issues have dogged Republicans in this state, issues such as women's right to choose. And the Democrats’ strategy is clearly to make Rob "one of those Republicans" and to scare people about his social views.
Pepple: They have to change the subject because they sure can’t change state government. The fact of the matter is, you’ve met Rob. Rob is not the caricature that the Democrats want to make him out to be. They say Rob McKenna is not who he says he is. The problem for them is that anybody who has met Rob, who has worked with Rob, knows that Rob is exactly who he says he is. And he has integrity. I recognize that’s a difficult concept for people to understand in politics, but Rob is who he says he is. And he carries that out and lives that both in his personal life and in his professional life. We will see the Democrats utilize that tactic. They use it every election year because they’ve found some success with it, so you can expect them to do it again.
But even more so this year, they have to utilize that tactic because they can’t talk about the issues that matter to the voters. Because if they talk about the state budget, they have to admit they have failed to fix our structural budget problems. They can’t talk about creating jobs because 32 years of Democratic governors have given us the most expensive state to try to create jobs in. They can’t talk at all about public education because they have made the choices in the time they have run the governor’s office for the last 32 years and frankly, for the last eight years when they have had both houses of the legislature, to choose other priorities and put other priorities in front of public education.
So Rob will talk about those issues for the remainder of the campaign. Congressman Inslee will have to avoid talking about those issues because he is on the wrong side of those issues. We fully expect them to change the subject because, as I say, they won’t change state government. So we’ll address it by telling the truth about what Rob will do as governor and just continue to suggest that people should ask Congressman Inslee if he has any plans to do anything different than his party has been doing for the last eight years that they’ve held all the levers of power in Olympia. Because he certainly hasn’t opened his mouth and said that they were doing anything wrong, so one must assume that he stands with those who want to raise taxes.
PubliCola: Rob McKenna supported Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire's soda tax. And he's willing to send a tax increase to pay for transportation to voters. [The soda tax and the previous transportation tax package are the only taxes Democrats have passed in the past 10 years.—Eds.]
Pepple: He believes we’ve got to put together a transportation package that will include a tax increase of some kind.
To read our previous Friday Q&A's, including interviews with US Sen. Patty Murray and netroots candidate Darcy Burner, go here.
Nobody would have expected this just a few months ago, when Inslee didn't appear ready for prime time, while his brainiac opponent McKenna consistently led in the polls and appeared more well-versed in state issues. Additionally, McKenna has cultivated an image as a moderate, something that has hurt the usual Democratic game plan of scaring Washington State voters into thinking every Republican candidate is Michele Bachmann.
Here's what else Politico said: "The next test is which contender will net more votes in Tuesday’s primary."
Well, I don't think the McKenna campaign, which is being run by longtime GOP strategist (and former Seattle Times sports writer) Randy Pepple, is looking forward to the August rankings. Inslee shocked many by winning big on Tuesday night, 46.6 to 43.3.
For this week's Cola Q&A, we caught up with Pepple, an irascible, talkative operative who thinks Inslee's comeback kid narrative is, as he told us on election night, "complete B.S."
PubliCola: You guys were at 35 percent in King County. Conventional wisdom says Republicans need to be over 40 percent in King County to win statewide. Isn’t 35 percent a pretty bad showing for a former King County Council member who got 53 percent in King County in 2008 in his statewide run for attorney general? Is this devastating for Rob, as the Democrats said on Tuesday night?
Randy Pepple: Of course not. The [2008] numbers from King County that you cited were from when Rob was an incumbent running for re-election, not when he was running for an open seat. To compare apples to apples, look at what Rob got in 2004 when he was running in an open seat and the combined Republican total was 38 percent statewide, and he came on to win.
[Editor's note: McKenna got 46 percent in King County in the 2004 general election.]
The turnout was favoring the Democrats in this [year's] primary. We knew that. That’s why we held back resources and just made sure we got into the top two.
PubliCola: You called the Democratic analysis that the primary election brings out more conservative voters, which would seem to make Inslee’s victory even worse for McKenna, "B.S." Explain.
Pepple: Well, the Inslee campaign sent out a memo on July 1 to set out a narrative that Congressman Inslee would not be the leading vote getter in the primary because somehow we had an older, more conservative electorate in the primary and that was the tradition. They called the primary electorate "substantially more conservative."[pullquote]"The Democrats laid out data points for why Inslee would come in second in the primary. But all of them were fabricated. They were just false."[/pullquote]
And they laid out data points for why that was true. But all of them were fabricated. They were just false. They lacked context. The first one was that the Republican candidates combined for 20,000 votes more than the Democrats in the 2010 senate [primary] race. What they failed to point out is, the Republican candidates didn’t get to 50 percent in that senate race because of the presence of the Democrats and the four minor parties. So how does that show a "substantially" more conservative turnout if the Republican senate candidates don’t even get a majority of the vote?
The other example from 2010 was they said, "Well, [Democratic 2nd Congressional District Rep.] Rick Larsen finished behind [Republican] John Koster but came on to win, so that proves that there were more conservatives out there." Well, no. They left out the fact that there was another Democrat in the race against Larsen, so the combined Democrat turnout was 52.37 percent. How does that show a conservative turnout in the primary?
They pointed out that [Democratic state treasurer] Jim McIntire finished under 40 percent in 2008, and that shows that it was a more conservative turnout then. No, Jim McIntire had another Democratic opponent in the primary; the total Democrat primary total was 54.66 percent. How does that show that it was a more conservative turnout?
The reality of primaries in Washington State today is that the Democrats start with an edge in self-identified partisans. In other words, more people in Washington State when asked, “Are you a Republican or Democrat?" will say Democrat than they will say Republican.
And it’s not just the pollsters that you can deduce that from. Just look at the number of people who identified as partisans who signed up to participate in the 2008 presidential primaries. They had to ask for a specific ballot—a Democrat or a Republican ballot. And indeed, 56 percent of the folks asked for a Democrat ballot, 44 percent Republican.[pullquote]"The best case scenario for us was to come out with a money advantage. And that’s what we did."[/pullquote]
All those data points told me we got a slight Democratic primary edge. In a memo I sent out prior to the election, I said 53.47 is probably the turnout model. And indeed, it’s turning out to be 51.47 and a couple points for the independents.
The salient point here is the Inslee people needed to have a win, so they put out a narrative to the media, that well they wouldn’t finish first. So they created a false narrative knowing in all probability that they would finish first, so then they could claim this stunning upset with devastating results to McKenna. And that's what I meant by pure B.S. [pullquote]"And that’s what I meant by pure B.S."[/pullquote]
They’ve got a communications director [former Jerry Brown spokesman Sterling Clifford of California] who’s from out of state. He’s never been through a Washington primary, so he can say, "Oh yeah, this is going to attract more conservatives in this primary." And people believe him, even though he provided no proof to back it up.
PubliCola: Regardless of spin, they won on Tuesday night.
Pepple: Oh, absolutely. Hey, they got the most votes. They gain some momentum from that. What I am pointing out is they were trying to set themselves up as huge underdogs devastating McKenna. And that is just an inaccurate assessment of the situation. They were going to finish first. They spent more money to finish first. They were focused on finishing first. I looked at the dynamics of the primary, and I said we are not going to be the leading vote-getter in this primary, so what the best-case scenario for us is to come out with a money advantage. And that’s what we did.
PubliCola: It appears that Rob had a bad summer---running away from KIRO TV's Essex Porter, telling a woman who asked him about reproductive rights to "get a job"...
Pepple: Telling a Democrat volunteer...
PubliCola: And Tweetgate , where a McKenna staffer was caught sending out racist and ageist tweets. Are we seeing Rob McKenna crack under pressure?
Pepple: That sounds like a Democratic question, so [state Democratic Party chair] Dwight Pelz is evidently on the line asking the questions now. One, you’re stretching back a little bit on one of those, so to say it was part of the summer is a bit of a stretch.
And the Tweetgate incident, as you put it, had nothing to do with Rob. It had to do with someone who was working on our staff, so I’m not sure how that could be equated to Rob, as you say, cracking under pressure.[pullquote]Are we seeing Rob McKenna crack under pressure?[/pullquote]
The Essex incident was Essex Porter chasing after Rob. Rob walked down a staircase and walked out to his car. Essex made it look like Rob was running away when it was Essex who was running. And if you listen to that tape, we had promised Essex the access to Rob that he wanted. We said, "We’ll have Rob answer your questions." But for whatever reason, and you can ask Essex what his reason was, he was insisting that he determine the time and place of the interview, as opposed to our campaign.
Rob did not run away from Essex Porter. Essex Porter chased down Rob when he was walking to his car.
PubliCola: What the TweetGate thing had to do with Rob was that there was some hesitancy to move swiftly and fire the woman from staff.[pullquote]"Essex Porter chased down Rob when he was walking to his car."[/pullquote]
Pepple: That is also a false claim. From the time that the offensive Tweets were [made public by the media] until the time when the staff member resigned was less than 48 hours. That is not hesitancy.
Then I contacted members of our Asian-American Coalition and said, "What do you think is most appropriate here?" And I was gathering information from the people I thought were most affected by this in their communities to get their thoughts. And I suspended her without pay while I was doing that, and ultimately, I said, "She is going to come into you and apologize to the coalition." When she did so, I accepted her resignation. And all of that took place in less than 48 hours.
So there is a narrative out there that wants to make this a political issue, that somehow this is about Rob McKenna, when in fact it’s about management. And I was managing the situation.
PubliCola: The other big thing I realize I left off from the bummer summer list is the Affordable Care Act ruling. Rob lost that. How does that play out for him?[pullquote]"Rob’s contention that the ACA violated the Commerce Clause was upheld by the Supreme Court."[/pullquote]
Pepple: Well, actually, Rob’s contention that the ACA violated the Commerce Clause was upheld by the Supreme Court. What they decided, what Chief Justice John Roberts and the other four members of the majority decided, was that it was a tax, and that it was legal under the taxing authority. So from Rob’s perspective, it was a victory for federalism. The point that he was making is that you can’t just have the federal government tell the states what they must do. That violates the context of federalism, and the Supreme Court agreed with that. And they said, however, Congress has the right to tax.
PubliCola: Rob had a good sound bite on the tricky gay marriage issue, which was that his position was exactly the same as Democratic President Obama. But that has now changed, with Obama's statement that he supports gay marriage. Are we going to see Rob follow the president again and "evolve" on that issue?[pullquote]"Rob McKenna has said that he supports traditional marriage, and that is a tenet of his faith. Basically, his position will not change."[/pullquote]
Pepple: Rob McKenna has said that he supports traditional marriage, and that is a tenet of his faith. Basically, his position will not change. And the president agrees with him on this, that this is an issue that should be left up to the states. This is one that the voters of this state are capable of deciding, and they’ll decide it in November. And Rob has said how he’ll be voting. But he also said he will carry out the will of the people as they vote on this issue in November.
PubliCola: Social issues have dogged Republicans in this state, issues such as women's right to choose. And the Democrats’ strategy is clearly to make Rob "one of those Republicans" and to scare people about his social views.
Pepple: They have to change the subject because they sure can’t change state government. The fact of the matter is, you’ve met Rob. Rob is not the caricature that the Democrats want to make him out to be. They say Rob McKenna is not who he says he is. The problem for them is that anybody who has met Rob, who has worked with Rob, knows that Rob is exactly who he says he is. And he has integrity. I recognize that’s a difficult concept for people to understand in politics, but Rob is who he says he is. And he carries that out and lives that both in his personal life and in his professional life. We will see the Democrats utilize that tactic. They use it every election year because they’ve found some success with it, so you can expect them to do it again.
But even more so this year, they have to utilize that tactic because they can’t talk about the issues that matter to the voters. Because if they talk about the state budget, they have to admit they have failed to fix our structural budget problems. They can’t talk about creating jobs because 32 years of Democratic governors have given us the most expensive state to try to create jobs in. They can’t talk at all about public education because they have made the choices in the time they have run the governor’s office for the last 32 years and frankly, for the last eight years when they have had both houses of the legislature, to choose other priorities and put other priorities in front of public education.
So Rob will talk about those issues for the remainder of the campaign. Congressman Inslee will have to avoid talking about those issues because he is on the wrong side of those issues. We fully expect them to change the subject because, as I say, they won’t change state government. So we’ll address it by telling the truth about what Rob will do as governor and just continue to suggest that people should ask Congressman Inslee if he has any plans to do anything different than his party has been doing for the last eight years that they’ve held all the levers of power in Olympia. Because he certainly hasn’t opened his mouth and said that they were doing anything wrong, so one must assume that he stands with those who want to raise taxes.
PubliCola: Rob McKenna supported Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire's soda tax. And he's willing to send a tax increase to pay for transportation to voters. [The soda tax and the previous transportation tax package are the only taxes Democrats have passed in the past 10 years.—Eds.]
Pepple: He believes we’ve got to put together a transportation package that will include a tax increase of some kind.
To read our previous Friday Q&A's, including interviews with US Sen. Patty Murray and netroots candidate Darcy Burner, go here.
