Morning Fizz
Our Election Predictions
With the exception of calling it in the primary two years ago (Nickels won't make it through) and the general (McGinn will win
), we don't have an impressive track record predicting election results: John Koster! Dino Rossi! The tunnel will lose!
But here goes anyway. And, by the way, these are not our endorsements, these are our predictions. For our 2011 Election guide—also not endorsements, but rather Muni League-style ratings and summaries—go here . (For a list of tonight's parties, go here.)
1. Erica's predictions for tonight's election:
City of Seattle Families & Education Levy: Pass, with 56 percent of the vote---less than 2004's 62 percent landslide, but a comfortable enough margin to declare victory on election night.[pullquote]The Secretary of State sent out an email yesterday announcing 21,000 eligible voters may not have received their ballots due to a glitch at the Department of Licensing. [/pullquote]
Seattle Proposition 1 ($60 car tabs): Fail , with 46 percent of the vote. Passing the families and education levy will give tax-friendly Seattle voters an excuse to vote against a measure whose benefits are less clearly defined.
Initiative 1183 , Privatizing State Liquor Sales: Pass, with 53 percent of the vote. Costco's $23 million beats out the "no" campaign's anti-corporate ad blitz.
Initiative 1125, Tolling and light rail: Fail, with 48 percent of the vote. Tim Eyman's name and the confusing nature of the initiative (does it eliminate tolls on 520? Prevent "unelected bureaucrats" from making policy? Kill light rail? All of the above?) will sink it statewide.
Initiative 1163, Long Term Care Worker Training: Pass, with 57 percent of the vote. Who's against better training for health care workers?
King County Council District 6: Jane Hague, with 51 percent of the vote. Hague's Democratic opponent, Richard Mitchell, is too much of an unknown quantity---and Hague's pro-transit vote for $20 car tabs bought her support from traditional Democratic backers, like the health care union.
King County Council District 8: Joe McDermott, with 68 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 1: Jean Godden. Despite ugly last-minute campaign tactics, Godden's name recognition, and the power of incumbency, will win her four more years on the council. But not by much: I predict Godden 53, Forch 47.
Seattle City Council Position 3: Bruce Harrell, with 58 percent of the vote over underfunded challenger Brad Meacham.
Seattle City Council Position 5: Tom Rasmussen, with 82 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 7: Tim Burgess, with 79 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 9: Sally Clark, with 72 percent of the vote.
Seattle School Board Director, District 1: Peter Maier.
Seattle School Board Director, District 2: Kate Martin.
Seattle School Board Director, District 3: Michelle Buetow.
Seattle School Board Director, District 6: Steve Sundquist.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 2: Gael Tarleton.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 5: Bill Bryant.
Bellevue City Council, Position 1: Aaron Laing.
Bellevue City Council, Position 3: John Chelminiak.
Bellevue City Council, Position 5: Claudia Balducci, in a squeaker.
2. And Josh's predictions:
City of Seattle Families & Education Levy: Pass , with 54 percent of the vote
Seattle Proposition 1 ($60 car tabs): Fail, with 46 percent of the vote.
Initiative 1183, Privatizing State Liquor Sales: Pass, with 57 percent of the vote.
Initiative 1125, Tolling and light rail: Fail, with 48 percent of the vote.
Initiative 1163, Long Term Care Worker Training: Pass, with 56 percent of the vote.
King County Council District 6: Richard Mitchell, with 51 percent of the vote.
King County Council District 8: Joe McDermott.
Seattle City Council Position 1: Bobby Forch, with 52 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 3: Bruce Harrell, with 59 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 5: Tom Rasmussen.
Seattle City Council Position 7: Tim Burgess, with 74 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 9: Sally Clark, with 73 percent of the vote.
Seattle School Board Director, District 1: Peter Maier.
Seattle School Board Director, District 2: Kate Martin.
Seattle School Board Director, District 3: Michelle Buetow.
Seattle School Board Director, District 6: Steve Sundquist.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 2: Gael Tarleton.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 5: Bill Bryant.
Bellevue City Council, Position 1: Aaron Laing.
Bellevue City Council, Position 3: John Chelminiak.
Bellevue City Council, Position 5: Claudia Balducci, in a squeaker.
3. In other election day news: The Washington Secretary of State sent out an alarming email late yesterday afternoon—21,000 eligible voters may not have received their ballots this year due to a glitch at the Department of Licensing.
Here's the note from the secretary of state and some helpful instructions if you believe you're one of the unlucky voters who didn't get your ballot.
But here goes anyway. And, by the way, these are not our endorsements, these are our predictions. For our 2011 Election guide—also not endorsements, but rather Muni League-style ratings and summaries—go here . (For a list of tonight's parties, go here.)
1. Erica's predictions for tonight's election:
City of Seattle Families & Education Levy: Pass, with 56 percent of the vote---less than 2004's 62 percent landslide, but a comfortable enough margin to declare victory on election night.[pullquote]The Secretary of State sent out an email yesterday announcing 21,000 eligible voters may not have received their ballots due to a glitch at the Department of Licensing. [/pullquote]
Seattle Proposition 1 ($60 car tabs): Fail , with 46 percent of the vote. Passing the families and education levy will give tax-friendly Seattle voters an excuse to vote against a measure whose benefits are less clearly defined.
Initiative 1183 , Privatizing State Liquor Sales: Pass, with 53 percent of the vote. Costco's $23 million beats out the "no" campaign's anti-corporate ad blitz.
Initiative 1125, Tolling and light rail: Fail, with 48 percent of the vote. Tim Eyman's name and the confusing nature of the initiative (does it eliminate tolls on 520? Prevent "unelected bureaucrats" from making policy? Kill light rail? All of the above?) will sink it statewide.
Initiative 1163, Long Term Care Worker Training: Pass, with 57 percent of the vote. Who's against better training for health care workers?
King County Council District 6: Jane Hague, with 51 percent of the vote. Hague's Democratic opponent, Richard Mitchell, is too much of an unknown quantity---and Hague's pro-transit vote for $20 car tabs bought her support from traditional Democratic backers, like the health care union.
King County Council District 8: Joe McDermott, with 68 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 1: Jean Godden. Despite ugly last-minute campaign tactics, Godden's name recognition, and the power of incumbency, will win her four more years on the council. But not by much: I predict Godden 53, Forch 47.
Seattle City Council Position 3: Bruce Harrell, with 58 percent of the vote over underfunded challenger Brad Meacham.
Seattle City Council Position 5: Tom Rasmussen, with 82 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 7: Tim Burgess, with 79 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 9: Sally Clark, with 72 percent of the vote.
Seattle School Board Director, District 1: Peter Maier.
Seattle School Board Director, District 2: Kate Martin.
Seattle School Board Director, District 3: Michelle Buetow.
Seattle School Board Director, District 6: Steve Sundquist.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 2: Gael Tarleton.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 5: Bill Bryant.
Bellevue City Council, Position 1: Aaron Laing.
Bellevue City Council, Position 3: John Chelminiak.
Bellevue City Council, Position 5: Claudia Balducci, in a squeaker.
2. And Josh's predictions:
City of Seattle Families & Education Levy: Pass , with 54 percent of the vote
Seattle Proposition 1 ($60 car tabs): Fail, with 46 percent of the vote.
Initiative 1183, Privatizing State Liquor Sales: Pass, with 57 percent of the vote.
Initiative 1125, Tolling and light rail: Fail, with 48 percent of the vote.
Initiative 1163, Long Term Care Worker Training: Pass, with 56 percent of the vote.
King County Council District 6: Richard Mitchell, with 51 percent of the vote.
King County Council District 8: Joe McDermott.
Seattle City Council Position 1: Bobby Forch, with 52 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 3: Bruce Harrell, with 59 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 5: Tom Rasmussen.
Seattle City Council Position 7: Tim Burgess, with 74 percent of the vote.
Seattle City Council Position 9: Sally Clark, with 73 percent of the vote.
Seattle School Board Director, District 1: Peter Maier.
Seattle School Board Director, District 2: Kate Martin.
Seattle School Board Director, District 3: Michelle Buetow.
Seattle School Board Director, District 6: Steve Sundquist.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 2: Gael Tarleton.
Seattle Port Commission, Position 5: Bill Bryant.
Bellevue City Council, Position 1: Aaron Laing.
Bellevue City Council, Position 3: John Chelminiak.
Bellevue City Council, Position 5: Claudia Balducci, in a squeaker.
3. In other election day news: The Washington Secretary of State sent out an alarming email late yesterday afternoon—21,000 eligible voters may not have received their ballots this year due to a glitch at the Department of Licensing.
Here's the note from the secretary of state and some helpful instructions if you believe you're one of the unlucky voters who didn't get your ballot.
We have become aware that about 21,000 voters/potential voters who used the Department of Licensing website may not have received ballots at their updated address or may not have been registered online. Anyone who has not received a ballot and believes himself or herself to be properly registered should go to the county elections office or voting center and will be allowed to vote a provisional ballot before close of business on Tuesday.
Washington has 3.66 million registered voters, and Secretary of State Sam Reed forecasts a 47 percent turnout. Ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday and may also be returned before 8 p.m. Tuesday to a voting center or official dropoff box.
Here is a memo from Katie Blinn, co-state elections director, explaining the situation – and the solution of the provisional ballot.
•If you think you should have received a ballot but did not, go to your county elections office or voting center. If there is a question regarding your eligibility to vote, you are always eligible to vote a provisional ballot. Your voter registration status will be researched after the election, and the races and ballot measures on which you are eligible to vote will be counted.
•If you think that you received a ballot for the wrong address, go to your county elections office or voting center. Your voter registration status will be researched and the races and ballot measures on which you are eligible to vote will be counted.
•When people update their address for their driver’s license with the state Department of Licensing, they can also request to update their address for voter registration purposes. This program is commonly known as Motor-Voter. DOL recently added a question about voter registration to its address update page on its website. However, the Secretary of State’s Office has not been receiving these voter registration updates from DOL, and therefore has not been able to pass these updates on to the county elections offices. The Secretary of State’s Office just received the information Friday evening, just two business days before Election Day.
•Approximately 14,800 address updates were submitted to DOL that were not received by the Secretary of State’s Office. However, we think that county elections offices had already received some of these address changes due to voters contacting the elections office directly, or receiving address update information from the Post Office.
•In addition, many ballots are forwarded to a person’s next address if forwarding information is available to the Post Office.
•State law allows a voter to vote a ballot for an old address until the voter registration file is updated.
•An additional 5,900 people requested to update their voter registration information on the DOL website, but were not previously registered. The information previously provided by the DOL address update system is not sufficient to complete a new voter registration so these people will be receiving a notice from their county elections office asking them to complete the registration. They can respond to the notice or fill out a new voter registration form. If anyone wants to vote in this General Election, they can go to their county elections office to vote a provisional ballot and complete the registration.
•Provisional ballots are an option any time voter registration information has not been updated or there is a question on which races and ballot measures a person is eligible to vote.
•The Department of Licensing and Secretary of State’s Office are already working on programming changes to enable the Secretary of State’s Office to receive the information electronically.
•Anyone who has questions regarding whether they are registered to vote, or whether they are registered at the correct address, can check their registration at www.myvote.wa.gov
