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Why State Auditor Brian Sonntag Would Have a Tough Time Running for Governor
At first glance, State Auditor Brian Sonntag seems like a formidable potential gubernatorial candidate. His job as auditor, where he routinely earns headlines criticizing the spendthrift ways of local and state government agencies, gives him an excellent platform to launch a bid as a seasoned reformer and change agent. A conservative Democrat from Pierce County, Sonntag has already run successfully statewide five times, serving as auditor since winning the office in 1992.
And he’s popular with voters suspicious of Olympia and its arcane ways, enjoying a centrist, bipartisan appeal. Sonntag won reelection in 2008 with an impressive 63.5 percent of the statewide vote -- his 1.7 million vote total that year was more than any other statewide candidate.
Now Sonntag is seriously considering a run for the state’s highest office. He told Crosscut’s Ted Van Dyk a couple of weeks ago that he will announce his decision by July 4. He clearly covets the office; when rumors surfaced last year that Gov. Gregoire might be appointed Solicitor General in the Obama administration, Sonntag was quick out of the blocks to announce that he would throw his hat in the ring if a special election were called.
But for all of his advantages, with 1st District Congressman Jay Inslee having made his run for governor official yesterday Sonntag has even more serious disadvantages that should make him think twice about running. Because if he does get in, he has a very slim chance of getting out of the primary, much less beating McKenna in a general election. Here’s why:
The Top Two Primary: Voters approved I-872 in 2004, creating the top two primary system. It didn’t go into effect until 2008 (implementation was delayed by a lawsuit filed by the parties that worked its way up to the US Supreme Court). Under the top two system, all primary candidates compete on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation, and in each race voters are free to chose whichever candidate they prefer regardless of party affiliation. It was billed by its proponents as a way of strengthening independent-minded centrist candidates at the expense of partisans on either side of the political divide. So the top two should create an advantage for Sonntag, right?
Wrong. The 2012 governor’s race appears to be shaping up as a clear example of how the top two primary can actually make a centrist run more difficult. If no strong, well funded Republican candidate enters the race to challenge McKenna, he will be the only serious Republican in the race. In a closed primary, where candidates are segregated by party and voters must vote either a Republican or a Democratic ballot, the Republican gubernatorial nomination would be a foregone conclusion, since McKenna would be the only candidate. Meanwhile, the Democratic ballot would feature a hotly contested primary showdown between Inslee, an unapologetic progressive, and the more conservative Sonntag.
In that scenario, with McKenna assured of moving on to the general election, it is possible -- even likely -- that large numbers of conservative-leaning independent and Republican voters would chose a Democratic primary ballot to vote for Sonntag (and against Inslee). Sonntag might have a plausible chance of defeating Inslee for the Democratic nomination with a combination of moderate Democrats, independents and Republicans all voting the Democratic ballot.
But in our top two primary, where all three candidates would square off head-to-head-to-head with the top two vote-getters moving on to a general election runoff, more conservative voters will stick with McKenna, who would be competing directly against the two Democrats, while liberal voters will still vote overwhelmingly for Inslee. And that would leave Sonntag the odd man out, facing a difficult pathway to make it to the general election. So much for the top two helping moderates.
Money: It costs a LOT OF MONEY to run for governor. In 2008, Gregoire and Rossi each raised and spend more than $11.5 million, with millions more spent through independent expenditures from supporters on both sides. The 2012 race will surely cost significantly more.
It is unlikely, but still conceivable, that Sonntag might come out of the primary in the top two if he has the resources to slug it out with Inslee. But he won’t. Inslee iwill roll up all of the traditional progressive Democratic donor constituencies: labor, environmentalists, the gay community (Inslee’s strong embrace of gay marriage is not just a matter of conviction, it’s also good politics), and more progressive business donors from high tech, biotech and other knowledge economy fields (that he launched his campaign at a biotech firm is also not a coincidence. McKenna, meanwhile, is going to quickly lock up traditional business and corporate donors. Some of those funders like Sonntag, who holds pro-business views, but they love McKenna, who is a corporate Republican’s wet dream candidate.
So where is Sonntag, who has no base in King County -- where wealthy political donors are concentrated -- going to get the millions it would take to win in 2012? Answer: he insn’t. With his superior fundraising, if he needs to Inslee will be able to blow Sonntag out of the water in the primary.
Up or Out: Sonntag has already been elected auditor five times. He pretty much has a lock on the auditor’s office for as long as he wants. But if he runs for governor in 2012, he’ll have to give up the auditor’s job, which is up for election next year as well.
So Sonntag faces the prospect of giving up a sure reelection to a statewide seat in exchange for a relatively longshot bid for governor. That's not much of a trade. If he is going to base his decision on a rational calculus, he’s better off not running.
And he’s popular with voters suspicious of Olympia and its arcane ways, enjoying a centrist, bipartisan appeal. Sonntag won reelection in 2008 with an impressive 63.5 percent of the statewide vote -- his 1.7 million vote total that year was more than any other statewide candidate.
Now Sonntag is seriously considering a run for the state’s highest office. He told Crosscut’s Ted Van Dyk a couple of weeks ago that he will announce his decision by July 4. He clearly covets the office; when rumors surfaced last year that Gov. Gregoire might be appointed Solicitor General in the Obama administration, Sonntag was quick out of the blocks to announce that he would throw his hat in the ring if a special election were called.
But for all of his advantages, with 1st District Congressman Jay Inslee having made his run for governor official yesterday Sonntag has even more serious disadvantages that should make him think twice about running. Because if he does get in, he has a very slim chance of getting out of the primary, much less beating McKenna in a general election. Here’s why:
The Top Two Primary: Voters approved I-872 in 2004, creating the top two primary system. It didn’t go into effect until 2008 (implementation was delayed by a lawsuit filed by the parties that worked its way up to the US Supreme Court). Under the top two system, all primary candidates compete on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation, and in each race voters are free to chose whichever candidate they prefer regardless of party affiliation. It was billed by its proponents as a way of strengthening independent-minded centrist candidates at the expense of partisans on either side of the political divide. So the top two should create an advantage for Sonntag, right?
Wrong. The 2012 governor’s race appears to be shaping up as a clear example of how the top two primary can actually make a centrist run more difficult. If no strong, well funded Republican candidate enters the race to challenge McKenna, he will be the only serious Republican in the race. In a closed primary, where candidates are segregated by party and voters must vote either a Republican or a Democratic ballot, the Republican gubernatorial nomination would be a foregone conclusion, since McKenna would be the only candidate. Meanwhile, the Democratic ballot would feature a hotly contested primary showdown between Inslee, an unapologetic progressive, and the more conservative Sonntag.
In that scenario, with McKenna assured of moving on to the general election, it is possible -- even likely -- that large numbers of conservative-leaning independent and Republican voters would chose a Democratic primary ballot to vote for Sonntag (and against Inslee). Sonntag might have a plausible chance of defeating Inslee for the Democratic nomination with a combination of moderate Democrats, independents and Republicans all voting the Democratic ballot.
But in our top two primary, where all three candidates would square off head-to-head-to-head with the top two vote-getters moving on to a general election runoff, more conservative voters will stick with McKenna, who would be competing directly against the two Democrats, while liberal voters will still vote overwhelmingly for Inslee. And that would leave Sonntag the odd man out, facing a difficult pathway to make it to the general election. So much for the top two helping moderates.
Money: It costs a LOT OF MONEY to run for governor. In 2008, Gregoire and Rossi each raised and spend more than $11.5 million, with millions more spent through independent expenditures from supporters on both sides. The 2012 race will surely cost significantly more.
It is unlikely, but still conceivable, that Sonntag might come out of the primary in the top two if he has the resources to slug it out with Inslee. But he won’t. Inslee iwill roll up all of the traditional progressive Democratic donor constituencies: labor, environmentalists, the gay community (Inslee’s strong embrace of gay marriage is not just a matter of conviction, it’s also good politics), and more progressive business donors from high tech, biotech and other knowledge economy fields (that he launched his campaign at a biotech firm is also not a coincidence. McKenna, meanwhile, is going to quickly lock up traditional business and corporate donors. Some of those funders like Sonntag, who holds pro-business views, but they love McKenna, who is a corporate Republican’s wet dream candidate.
So where is Sonntag, who has no base in King County -- where wealthy political donors are concentrated -- going to get the millions it would take to win in 2012? Answer: he insn’t. With his superior fundraising, if he needs to Inslee will be able to blow Sonntag out of the water in the primary.
Up or Out: Sonntag has already been elected auditor five times. He pretty much has a lock on the auditor’s office for as long as he wants. But if he runs for governor in 2012, he’ll have to give up the auditor’s job, which is up for election next year as well.
So Sonntag faces the prospect of giving up a sure reelection to a statewide seat in exchange for a relatively longshot bid for governor. That's not much of a trade. If he is going to base his decision on a rational calculus, he’s better off not running.
