Image via SoggyDan on Flickr.

Mayor Mike McGinn did indeed manage not to mention the tunnel in his State of the Valley speech at the New Holly Gathering Hall this afternoon. Instead---in a speech that was somewhat short on Southeast Seattle specifics---he defended the size of his proposed Families and Education Levy (twice as large, in real terms, as the one voters approved in 2004), praised efforts by the police department to expand their reach in Southeast Seattle (they've added a two-person foot patrol and done a survey of residents), and touted the fact that crime in the neighborhood is down overall.

"That's a sign of progress, and it's a testimony to the competence of our police department," McGinn said.

Looking at the stats, though, it's hard to say whether the lower crime rate for the year so far represents an actual trend or a snapshot that could change for better or worse as the year goes on. The biggest percentage reductions were in crimes that are relatively rare to begin with. Yes, as McGinn noted, homicide is down 100 percent. But that's from a total of one homicide by this same time last year. Similarly, rapes are down 20 percent---but that number only represents one rape fewer than last year, four rapes instead of five.

When it comes to more common crimes, three categories have declined significantly---robbery (down 17 percent), burglary (down 14 percent), and larceny (down 23 percent). Overall, violent crimes are up 9 percent, thanks largely to a sharp (33 percent) increase in aggravated assault, the only category out of 8 types of crime that went up significantly. McGinn attributed that spike to an increase in domestic-violence incidents in Southeast Seattle.

McGinn, whose human services director, Dannette Smith, eliminated the division of the human services department devoted to domestic violence prevention, said HSD was putting together a strategy to reduce domestic violence incidents. McGinn also proposed eliminating two of seven victim advocates from the police department, which could have reduced advocates' overall emphasis on domestic violence, and his budget would have eliminated four intervention programs for low-income domestic violence offenders. All those proposed cuts were subsequently restored by the city council.