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Report finds Liberal Pundits More Accurate
In 2009, I predicted that then-mayor Greg Nickels would not make it through the primary. Later, in that same election season, I predicted
that Mike McGinn would beat Joe Mallahan.
However, in 2010, I predicted that Dino Rossi would beat U.S. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and that John Koster would beat U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA)
This hit and miss record, probably lands me in the "Bad" category when it comes to punditry. Indeed, students at Hamilton College in New York have done a research paper tracking just how well talking head soothsayers and columnists do when it comes to predicting the future. They divided the results (and the pundits) into three categories: "Good," "Bad," and "Ugly."
[pullquote]The students found that liberals, including New York Times columnist Paul Krugman led the pack, while conservatives, including Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) were at the bottom of the heap. [/pullquote]
The scores were derived by analyzing the accuracy of 472 predictions made by 26 of the top talk show and print pundits in the country, assigning a one to predictions that "will not happen" with scores up to five for "will absolutely happen."
The students found that liberals, including New York Times columnist Paul Krugman (15-1) and talking heads such as Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)—led the pack, while conservatives, including conservative Chicago Tribune columnist Cal Thomas and Sens. Joe Lieberman (6-8) (I-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) were at the bottom of the heap in the "Ugly" group.
In the middle—the "Bad" category—the students found: Howard Wolfson, communications director for Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; Sen. John Kerry (D-MA),; liberal New York Times liberal columnist Bob Herbert; middle-of-the-road New York Times columnist Tom Friedman; former Washington Post columnist David Broder; Chicago Tribune columnist Clarence Page; New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof; Hillary Clinton; and conservative George Will.
The whole report "Are Talking Heads Blowing Hot Air?" is a must read.
However, in 2010, I predicted that Dino Rossi would beat U.S. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and that John Koster would beat U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA)
This hit and miss record, probably lands me in the "Bad" category when it comes to punditry. Indeed, students at Hamilton College in New York have done a research paper tracking just how well talking head soothsayers and columnists do when it comes to predicting the future. They divided the results (and the pundits) into three categories: "Good," "Bad," and "Ugly."
[pullquote]The students found that liberals, including New York Times columnist Paul Krugman led the pack, while conservatives, including Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) were at the bottom of the heap. [/pullquote]
The scores were derived by analyzing the accuracy of 472 predictions made by 26 of the top talk show and print pundits in the country, assigning a one to predictions that "will not happen" with scores up to five for "will absolutely happen."
The students found that liberals, including New York Times columnist Paul Krugman (15-1) and talking heads such as Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)—led the pack, while conservatives, including conservative Chicago Tribune columnist Cal Thomas and Sens. Joe Lieberman (6-8) (I-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) were at the bottom of the heap in the "Ugly" group.
In the middle—the "Bad" category—the students found: Howard Wolfson, communications director for Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; Sen. John Kerry (D-MA),; liberal New York Times liberal columnist Bob Herbert; middle-of-the-road New York Times columnist Tom Friedman; former Washington Post columnist David Broder; Chicago Tribune columnist Clarence Page; New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof; Hillary Clinton; and conservative George Will.
The whole report "Are Talking Heads Blowing Hot Air?" is a must read.
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