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What They Were Saying At the Cocker-Fennessy Party
Josh and I just got back from the big annual throwdown at strategic communications firm Cocker Fennessy, where pretty much every local elected official was hanging out (and eating teriyaki tuna, chicken satay, cranberry-turkey rye toasts, and barbecue meatbals) before heading over to one of a handful of election parties around the city. (A short list: King County Exec Dow Constantine; his nemesis King County Council member Larry Phillips; five members of the city council (Richard Conlin, we were told, was still at the office obsessively analyzing the national results); King County sheriff Sue Rahr; a ton of political staffers; former deputy mayor Tim Ceis; and what seemed like most of the Sound Transit staff (including ST CEO Joni Earl).
Of all the folks I talked to, only one (who shall remain nameless) predicted that Dino Rossi would manage a win tonight; everyone else, to a person, predicted Sen. Patty Murray would win reelection. People were divided in their predictions about a few initiatives, including I-1100 (the Costco-backed liquor privatization initiative) and I-1098 (the high-earners' income tax) but generally, most in this progressive crowd were pessimistic, predicting that Tim Eyman's 1053 (requiring a two-thirds legislative majority to raise taxes) would pass, and that 1107 (repeal of sales taxes on candy, soda, and bottled water) would pass.
In more positive news for progressives, most of the folks I talked to predicted that Initiative 1082 (partially privatizing workers' compensation) would fail (on account of its confusing language) and that Initiative 1105 (the other liquor-privatization initiative, which would eliminate all liquor taxes) would fail.
Only one person I talked to---Sheriff Rahr, who has an obvious interest in the outcome---predicted that King County Prop. 1, raising taxes to pay for criminal justice services, would pass, although even she predicted only a "very narrow" margin. Others predicted that the measure would fail by a margin of as much as ten points.
If the outcome of any of the initiatives or propositions remains unclear after tonight, that could throw both the county's and the city of Seattle's budget processes into disarray. If the liquor initiatives and 1107 pass, and Prop. 1 fails, the city stands to lose more than $3 million next year and more than $8 million in 2012, on top of a projected $67 million deficit next year.
Of all the folks I talked to, only one (who shall remain nameless) predicted that Dino Rossi would manage a win tonight; everyone else, to a person, predicted Sen. Patty Murray would win reelection. People were divided in their predictions about a few initiatives, including I-1100 (the Costco-backed liquor privatization initiative) and I-1098 (the high-earners' income tax) but generally, most in this progressive crowd were pessimistic, predicting that Tim Eyman's 1053 (requiring a two-thirds legislative majority to raise taxes) would pass, and that 1107 (repeal of sales taxes on candy, soda, and bottled water) would pass.
In more positive news for progressives, most of the folks I talked to predicted that Initiative 1082 (partially privatizing workers' compensation) would fail (on account of its confusing language) and that Initiative 1105 (the other liquor-privatization initiative, which would eliminate all liquor taxes) would fail.
Only one person I talked to---Sheriff Rahr, who has an obvious interest in the outcome---predicted that King County Prop. 1, raising taxes to pay for criminal justice services, would pass, although even she predicted only a "very narrow" margin. Others predicted that the measure would fail by a margin of as much as ten points.
If the outcome of any of the initiatives or propositions remains unclear after tonight, that could throw both the county's and the city of Seattle's budget processes into disarray. If the liquor initiatives and 1107 pass, and Prop. 1 fails, the city stands to lose more than $3 million next year and more than $8 million in 2012, on top of a projected $67 million deficit next year.
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