Super nerd Nate Silver has a summary of the U.S. senate election topography today showing the Democrats likely to retain control.

The succession of recent polls that favor U.S. Sen. Patty Murray feature prominently in Silver's write up, including the news of a new Rasmussen poll (which tends to tilt Republican) that shows Murray with a slight lead, 49-46. Rassmusen had the numbers reversed two weeks ago.

Silver, who blogs as 538 at the New York Times, writes:

Three additional polls are out in Washington State since our last update, and all of them show the Democratic incumbent, Patty Murray, with a small lead; her winning chances are improved to 84 percent from 78 percent. While her Republican opponent, Dino Rossi, is far from out of the running, and while the polling has been inconsistent, the only nonpartisan polls since August to show Mr. Rossi with a lead are a series of polls from Rasmussen Reports — and their most recent survey now shows Ms. Murray with a lead.