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You Predicted It.
We've finished tabulating the results of our primary-election prediction contest, which over 50 of you entered at last week's PubliCola primary election night party at the Five Point.
We have a winner! (The prize: Two standard tickets to Bumbershoot.)
But first, some observations:
Almost no one guessed that Marcee Stone would do so poorly in the 34th District. She got 14 percent; PubliCola readers' predictions ranged from a high of 45 percent to a low of 4 percent (although that one was clearly a Joe Fitzgibbon supporter---they gave him 60 percent).
And a lot of folks were way too optimistic about Stan Rumbaugh's chances against state Supreme Court Justice Jim Johnson: About half of you predicted Rumbaugh would beat the notoriously anti-gay incumbent; in reality, Johnson won with 62 percent of the vote.
Some of you had problems with basic math. (I submit: "Rumbaugh 53 percent, Johnson 49").
And then, some of you just gave up:
Your "crazy-ass" predictions—our extra credit tie-breaker if necessary—ranged from exuberant ("This is Goodspaceguy's year. Biggest primary showing evaaah!") to surprisingly prescient ("Jean Berkey out in primary") to, well, "crazy-ass" (McGinn resigns!)
Our winner had by far the closest overall vote spread and correctly predicted (in the "crazy-ass prediction" category) that Nick Harper would end up in first place in the 38th District, edging out incumbent Democrat Berkey.
After blowing away the competition, our winner signed the entry form simply as "Thomas Goldstein's minion." (Thomas Goldstein is the head of the get-out-the-youth-vote group, the Washington Bus.)
However, we did a little sleuthing (we have our ways), and we're excited to announce the winner. Congratulations to Benjamin Lawver, political director of the Washington State Labor Council, and thanks to everyone who participated! Start sharpening your pencils now for the general-election competition.
We have a winner! (The prize: Two standard tickets to Bumbershoot.)
But first, some observations:
Almost no one guessed that Marcee Stone would do so poorly in the 34th District. She got 14 percent; PubliCola readers' predictions ranged from a high of 45 percent to a low of 4 percent (although that one was clearly a Joe Fitzgibbon supporter---they gave him 60 percent).
And a lot of folks were way too optimistic about Stan Rumbaugh's chances against state Supreme Court Justice Jim Johnson: About half of you predicted Rumbaugh would beat the notoriously anti-gay incumbent; in reality, Johnson won with 62 percent of the vote.
Some of you had problems with basic math. (I submit: "Rumbaugh 53 percent, Johnson 49").
And then, some of you just gave up:

Your "crazy-ass" predictions—our extra credit tie-breaker if necessary—ranged from exuberant ("This is Goodspaceguy's year. Biggest primary showing evaaah!") to surprisingly prescient ("Jean Berkey out in primary") to, well, "crazy-ass" (McGinn resigns!)
Our winner had by far the closest overall vote spread and correctly predicted (in the "crazy-ass prediction" category) that Nick Harper would end up in first place in the 38th District, edging out incumbent Democrat Berkey.
After blowing away the competition, our winner signed the entry form simply as "Thomas Goldstein's minion." (Thomas Goldstein is the head of the get-out-the-youth-vote group, the Washington Bus.)
However, we did a little sleuthing (we have our ways), and we're excited to announce the winner. Congratulations to Benjamin Lawver, political director of the Washington State Labor Council, and thanks to everyone who participated! Start sharpening your pencils now for the general-election competition.
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