The second ballot drop in the Seattle elections happens today at 4:30. Of a total 136,424 ballots that King County has "processed" (but not counted) since voting started, the county had counted around 89,132 as of last night, leaving 44,918 left to count today. Given Mike McGinn's current 910-vote lead in the mayor's race (50.03 to 48.96 percent), that means that Joe Mallahan will have to get just over 51 percent of the votes being counted today to take the lead away from his rival.

McGinn, in contrast, only needs to get around 49 percent of the vote to stay ahead of Mallahan. That wouldn't be a huge reversal, but if the outstanding late-voter ballots trend toward McGinn (as they did in the primary, and as I think they're likely to do now—McGinn's last-minute GOTV effort is already legendary), it does mean McGinn has the upper hand.

Wild card, though: If turnout does end up at 56 percent, as King County Elections has predicted, that would mean that another 84,000 votes remain outstanding. Bottom line: Barring a huge surge for either candidate today, it'll be a couple more days—at least—before we know anything conclusive.