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Footnotes to Today's Results; Or, Don't Extrapolate Too Much from Today's Mallahan Surge (Yet)

By Erica C. Barnett November 4, 2009

The total number of new votes in the city of Seattle (where Mike McGinn and Joe Mallahan are currently running neck-and-neck): 20,742.

The total number of new votes in King County (where King County Executive candidate Dow Constantine has widened his lead against Susan Hutchison): 54,389.

The total turnout expected in Seattle, according to King County Elections: 210,000. That leaves around 100,000 ballots outstanding, all late returns. That's nearly half the total ballots cast, if the city hits those targets. And given that only 20,000 or so ballots were counted today, it's hard to extrapolate too much out of today's seeming Mallahan surge.

Every candidate and ballot measure that was winning as of last night has widened their total vote gap against their opponents, except two: McGinn, as previously mentioned, and Initiative 1033, which is still losing statewide, but by a smaller margin than before.

The most dramatic increases among those who widened the gap on their opponents were for Richard Conlin, Sally Bagshaw, and Dow Constantine; the least dramatic, for Mike O'Brien, Nick Licata, and Lloyd Hara.
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