The King County Council floor may be a ghost town this afternoon, but the machinations over who will replace King County Executive Dow Constantine (District 8) on the council continue apace. With Constantine now in the King County Executive's office, the council (officially nonpartisan) is split evenly between four Democrats and four Republicans. (Ordinarily, the Republicans are in a 5-4 minority, with a Democratic county executive). Because Constantine's replacement will be a Democrat, he or she is likely to get the support of all four Dems on the council (rumors aside, even onetime Constantine opponent Larry Phillips seems ready to play ball), meaning that whoever the council picks will need the support of at least one Republican.

The various scenarios are all different, but they revolve around a common theme: Republicans, who temporarily have some political leverage over the Democrats, have an opportunity to impact the political makeup of the council. However, if they push back too hard against the Democrats, they may end up paying for it in the future, when Democrats will have a five-vote council majority.

The list of the leading contenders remains the same as I reported earlier: State Rep. Sharon Nelson (D-34), state Sen. Joe McDermott (D-34), state Rep. Zack Hudgins (D-11), and former Seattle City Council member Jan Drago. (Normandy Park Mayor Shawn McEvoy, reportedly a favorite of Republicans because he describes himself as an "independent," and because his constituency includes only a few precincts of District 8, stunting his election chances) is technically still in the mix, but sources on the council say Republicans haven't mentioned his name much lately).

Drago and Nelson have said they would serve as one-year "caretakers" until a permanent replacement is elected next November; McDermott and Hudgins have said they would run for reelection after filling out the term.

Some Democrats on the council initially worried that Republicans would try to drag out the appointment process to gain leverage during the upcoming council reorganization (in which council committees get assigned), leaving District 8's 200,000 residents without a representative on the council. But last week, in response to Republican Kathy Lambert's remarks to PubliCola (she said she would prefer to delay the vote until January), Republican Reagan Dunn, who is heading up the appointment process for the council, issued a statement instead committing to a vote on December 14, before the council's holiday recess. (Dunn did not respond to calls placed to his office for this or my previous story).

"I see no reason why the council cannot agree on a candidate and swear them in before the end of the year," Dunn said in the statement. Dunn's strong commitment to a swift vote makes other Republicans much more likely to fall in line.

Now, the latest theories and potential scenarios.

1) Everybody just agrees to appoint McDermott. The thinking behind this one is that McDermott is just going to win next November anyway (he's already said he plans to run, whether or not he gets the appointment), so the Republicans figure they might as well just appoint him now and get it over with. Agreeing to appoint McDermott now could, according to this theory, pay off for the Republicans with four years of good relations with District 8.

2) The Republicans hold out for Hudgins. This is kind of an alternate theory to the one above. By appointing Hudgins, thE theory goes, the Republicans would give him the advantage of incumbency (not to mention the ability to send out county-funded newsletters touting his accomplishments to constituents as often as he likes) when McDermott runs against him next year. Republicans perceive Hudgins as more moderate than McDermott, and presumably hope the favor would help them swing a few more votes their way.

Although some district insiders think McDermott is unbeatable, it's worth noting that he's never had to run for a contested election (his first race, in 2000, was against a Republican; he won with 75 percent). If Hudgins ran a tough campaign against a McDermott challenge, starting as soon as he's appointed (officially, you can't start running until you file; unofficially, county council members can send as many newsletters to constituents touting their accomplishments as they have money for), it's possible that he could win.

3) The council appoints Nelson as a placeholder, assuming that McDermott would run next year and win. As much as I like the domino effect of this scenario (Nelson resigns her seat in the House to take over temporarily at the council, McDermott takes over Nelson's council seat next year, resigning his Senate seat; Nelson gets appointed to fill McDermott's seat in the Senate), it's hard to see why Republicans would want to play along with such an elaborate scheme—one that, in the end, benefits McDermott anyway. If they're going to do that, why not just appoint him?

4) The council appoints Jan Drago as a placeholder and lets the voters decide next year. There's some precedent for this scenario: Kurt Triplett was appointed as a placeholder to replace Ron Sims until this year's election, and most folks agree that worked out just fine. Drago is a moderate Dem, and Republicans on the council, including Dunn (who did not return a call for comment) are said to see her as an acceptable compromise.