1. A closer look at the poll numbers in the Seattle mayoral race shows that Joe Mallahan has opened up a huge lead among voters who identify themselves as "moderates" and "independents." Between September 15 and October 20, Mallahan's lead among moderates grew from a margin of 47-31 over his opponent, Mike McGinn, to 54-27—27 percent.

Among independents, Mallahan's lead grew from 43-35 on September 15 to 52-24 in the Washington Poll announced yesterday— 28 percent. Conventional wisdom says that successful candidates run to the middle to win general elections, and that appears to be exactly what Mallahan is doing.

However, one caveat: Nineteen percent of voters still identify themselves as "undecided," and McGinn did end up winning over many of those who identified themselves that way before the August primary. So the race is still anybody's guess.

2. Friends of Seattle—whose endorsement interview with council Position 8 candidate Robert Rosencrantz revealed his flip-flop on the issue of tolling—has come out hard against Rosencrantz, releasing a new campaign video called "Robert Rosencrantz has the WRONG VALUES for Seattle."

The video says that Rosencrantz opposes a woman's right to choose, wants to ditch Sound Transit in favor of a new highway-building agency, and of being a Republican:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP4g5njkpZE[/youtube]

3. RonK's comment on our post yesterday about polling on Tim Eyman's tax-slashing Initiative 1033 (which shows the initiative losing by a significant margin) came in too late for Comment of the Day, but he made a point worth highlighting:

"Tracking polls will not reflect the King County can’t-find-it-on-the-ballot effect, will they?"

He's referring to the fact that 1033 is hard to find on ballots in King County. If you haven't voted yet, it's in the lower left-hand corner (image via No on 1033):

4. Last night's CityClub-sponsored Speed Candi-Dating event (awesome idea, btw) was sparsely attended (do it a bar next time, rather than a blank corporate rental). But it was entertaining.

Observations: Nick Licata couldn't get a "date" to save his life (guess everyone's made their mind up in that race); representatives for Joe Mallahan and Mike McGinn spent an inordinate amount of time talking about transit (one attendee was adamant that the new mayor "get the homeless people off the bus" by ditching the ride-free area, which Mallahan's rep said he probably wouldn't support); and Tom Carr and Pete Holmes still can't stand each other.

5. No plans on Halloween afternoon? The Washington Bus, No on 1033, and Yes on R-71 are holding a costumed canvassing event called Trick or Vote starting at 2 pm at the Old Rainier Cold Storage in Georgetown (5840 Airport Way S). Info and RSVP here.

This morning's Morning Fizz is brought to you by Kay Smith-Blum for Seattle School Board.