The the latest SurveyUSA poll shows T-Mobile executive Joe Mallahan beating green neighborhood activist and lawyer Mike McGinn 41 to 36 in the mayor's race, with 23 percent undecided.

The poll bucks the recent buzz that McGinn seems to be out-campaigning and out-performing Mallahan.

The poll shows that Mallahan's strength is among older voters (above 50) where he leads 47 to 31. He's also beating McGinn among women by eight points, 41 to 33. McGinn leads among 18 to 34-year-olds, 42 to 36—the only age demographic where he's ahead.

Mallahan also has a strong lead among self-identified Republicans, moderates, and conservatives. Mallahan also has a slight lead among Democrats—within the margin of error—40 to 37. (However, McGinn leads among self-identified liberals, 41 to 35.)

McGinn is running stronger than Mallahan among voters who make less than $50,000 a year—he's up 39 to 38—while he's losing by nine points—43 to 34—among people making more than $50,000.

McGinn is also leading among African-Americans—39 to 31—which could help him in the final vote if he builds on this early advantage. As we've pointed out, Nickels appeared to win the minority vote in the primary and whoever picks up this bloc of Nickels voters will have a good chance of winning the general.

A surprise footnote: McGinn's success among poorer voters and African-American voters shows that his anti-tax spin on the tunnel—as opposed to his green rhetoric—may be his best strategy for expanding beyond his Capitol Hill and PCC Natural Markets base.