As we head into the final weekend before King County's first-ever all vote-by-mail election on Tuesday, only about 14 percent of the more than 1 million registered voters have mailed in ballots so far, according to the elections office .

Turnout for the election was expected to be around 35 percent. That's a little high for an off-year, primary election. But election officials were taking into account all the new voters who registered in 2008.

There will have to be a major uptick in voting for turnout to hit those expectations.

Traditionally, small turnouts favor conservative candidates (as do off-year primaries.)

Given that liberal King County Council Member Dow Constantine is ahead in the polls among the Democrats vying for King County Executive (including the more conservative Democrats who are running—suburban State Rep. Ross Hunter and suburban State Sen. Fred Jarrett) and given that super liberal mayoral candidate Mike McGinn is actually pushing a conservative message (Nickels' tunnel is "the biggest tax hike in Seattle history"), it's not clear how conventional wisdom will play out on Tuesday night.