Mallahan, Nickels, McGinn

As I reported yesterday , a new SurveyUSA poll shows Joe Mallahan and Mike McGinn surging against Mayor Greg Nickels.

As usual, though, things get really interesting in the details.

Nickels, it turns out, enjoys the strongest overall showing among younger voters (age 18 to 34): 27 percent to 22 percent each for McGinn and Mallahan. However, both McGinn and Mallahan appear to be surging among younger voters—with most previously undecided younger voters breaking for one of them, not for Nickels. In the last poll issued a week ago, McGinn had just 9 percent, and Mallahan had just 7 percent, of voters between 18 and 34 (with 26 percent undecided—the highest of any age group). That dovetails with the fact that previously undecided voters, overall, are going for McGinn and Mallahan instead of Nickels.

The significant thing here is that late absentee voters—that is, the people who are voting today, or about half of all voters assuming 33 percent turnout in Seattle—have historically tended to skew younger than early voters. This could be good for any of the three leading candidates.  Nickels has the largest group of younger voters in his camp, so it's possible that late votes will put him through the primary on top. On the other hand, McGinn is surging late—and the young people he's surging among are only voting now. And Mallahan will benefit if turnout is lower than expected, because while younger voters are going for him, too, his real strength is with older voters. The lower the turnout, the more the vote skews toward people above 50.

In other words, the mayoral election is completely up in the air.

One other item of interest on the mayor's race: Among those who have already voted, Mallahan and McGinn are within striking distance of Nickels, with 25 percent and 23 percent, respectively, to Nickels' 27 percent. Among those who say they plan to vote, Nickels has 26 percent to 19 percent each for Mallahan and MCGinn. However, fully 18 percent of those voters say they're undecided—and given that Nickels' numbers have remained stagnant while undecided voters have gone to McGinn and Mallahan, that's another reason for the mayor to sweat.