News

Even Further Behind

By Erica C. Barnett August 20, 2009


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1.Days after a last-minute donation from the Service Employees International Union's healthcare PAC—apparently intended for KC Executive candidate Dow Constantine—last week, the 34th District Democrats' executive board reportedly voted last night to nullify their endorsements and replace them with new endorsements. PubliCola freelancer Johnathon Fitzpatrick got the scoop.

Members of the board reportedly want to replace a dual endorsement for Mike McGinn and Greg Nickels with a sole endorsement for Joe Mallahan; replace a dual endorsement for Sally Bagshaw and Dorsol Plants with a sole endorsement for David Bloom; and replace a dual endorsement for Jessie Israel and Nick Licata with a sole endorsement for Israel. The vote would also have the effect of nullifying endorsements for Constantine and City Attorney Tom Carr.

NOTE: The above paragraph has been changed to reflect the fact that the board did not vote to endorse specific candidates at last night's meeting; rather, they voted to revisit all primary endorsements in the general election after members expressed support for candidates who didn't receive endorsements in the primary.

Additionally, the district has apparently not yet deposited the SEIU's $4,000 check, which some members wanted to give to Dow Constantine, Port Commission candidate Max Vekich, and Plants. The SEIU had already given the maximum $800 to Constantine. Although there was nothing illegal about the contribution (which came unmarked and with no strings attached), SEIU spokesman Adam Glickman says, "Yes, we gave them the money because we hoped that they would support their endorsed candidates, and clearly their main camdidate was Dow Constantine."

PubliCola has contacted several sources in the 34th and will update as soon as we know more.

2. As we reported yesterday , Mayor Greg Nickels has fallen even further behind his challengers Joe Mallahan and Mike McGinn—from 455 votes behind Mallahan to 1,061 behind McGinn. In real vote numbers, he's fallen 561 votes further behind. And he's fallen slightly below
25 percent in the latest batch.

According to some back-of-the-envelope analysis by a friend of PubliCola (PubliCola is math-challenged), assuming 30 percent total turnout, Nickels would have to win 28.5 percent of the total outstanding votes to make it through the primary. That would be a huge uptick in Nickels' total in the remaining batch of votes. Given that the trend has been the opposite—Nickels is actually falling further behind—that would represent a major (and unlikely) reversal of the current trend.

Shorter version: Barring a major reversal (and those do happen—see Nickels v. Sidran in 2001), Nickels is toast.

3. Still more election analysis: Since 1985, no incumbent who got more than 46.5 percent in the primary has lost in the general election. That's good news for Position 6 incumbent Nick Licata, who got nearly 54 percent of the votes counted so far in Tuesday's primary election—and bad news for challenger Jessie Israel, who got just over 30 percent.

4. One unanswered question from Tuesday night's election: Why did Position 4 candidate David Bloom fare so poorly against his opponent Sally Bagshaw? Bloom got just 18 percent of the vote; Bagshaw got more than 50. For theories—including the end of the neighborhood movement, the McGinn Effect, and more—check out PubliCola later today.

5. Also later today: If you liked MusicNerd's podcast with local rapper GMK last week , hit refresh around noon today for more exclusive gold from the Golden Microphone King.
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6. The Seattle PostGlobe has a look at the impacts of the economy, lower gas prices, and higher transit costs on transit ridership. The short version: It's not good .

Today's Morning Fizz brought to you by Re-elect Richard Conlin. CLICK HERE TO DONATE .




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