According to a poll conducted in late June by True Blue Innovation—a polling firm hired by WinPower Strategies, a consulting firm that's doing work for city council candidate David Bloom—Mayor Greg Nickels has the firm support of just 18 percent of primary voters, the lowest number I've seen yet. (Nickels is followed by council member Jan Drago at 13 and James Donaldson, Mike McGinn, and Joe Mallahan trailing at 8. Forty percent of primary voters polled were still undecided.)

Those are bad numbers for Nickels. Even worse for Nickels, though, are the results of hypothetical general-election matchups between the mayor and each of his top five opponents. In those questions, the mayor never breaks 30 percent, and all of his opponents best him by at least 16 points. Interestingly, however, the most likely scenario in the primary according to this poll—a Drago-Nickels matchup—is also the best potential outcome for Nickels: In that scenario, Drago gets just 43 percent of the vote to Nickels's 27, with 30 percent undecided. If Nickels could grab those undecided voters—by running a campaign focusing on Drago's negatives—he could stand a better than even chance.

I break down the numbers below the jump.

Donaldson 48
Nickels 26
Undecided 26

Drago 43
Nickels 27
Undecided 30

McGinn 43
Nickels 24
Undecided 33

Mallahan 41
Nickels 23
Undecided 36
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