[caption id="attachment_10598" align="alignleft" width="312" caption="McGinn's mailer"] [/caption]

A political number-cruncher pal took a look at what the mayoral candidates have been spending on mail and TV ad buys. First, a slight clarification: Joe Mallahan appears to have actually pledged to spend considerably more than the $80,000 or so I mentioned in Morning Fizz . Once a $92,000 "deposit on remaining weeks" with his ad buying firm, Luc Media of Marietta, GA is included, Mallahan's total buy comes to about $172,000—most of which has not been spent yet.

Now for a little analysis. Assuming 28 percent of Seattle voters turn out for the mail-only August 18 primary, that's about 95,000 voters. In a five-way race, that means the candidate who goes through (along with Mayor Greg Nickels, who's in the lead) will need about 20 percent of the vote, or about 20,000 voters.

While Mallahan's saturating the airwaves, the other Nickels challengers—Mike McGinn, Jan Drago, and James Donaldson—are going to have to stick with mail. McGinn has already sent out one piece for $25,000 (probably targeted to anti-tunnel voters and enviros—I got it), as has Drago, for $18,000 (probably targeted at more conservative, older women—I didn't get it).

Donaldson has a $10,000 obligation to a consulting firm, presumably for mail—about enough to pay for a single piece.