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More About the Poll on the K.C. Exec's Race

By Josh Feit May 5, 2009


Here's  the memo  that Hart Research Associates prepared for the Fred Jarrett campaign based on the recent polling they did for Jarrett in his race for King County Executive. 

The poll, not too surprising, found that Jarrett is best positioned to beat the apparent frontrunner, the well-known KIRO TV anchor, Susan Hutichison:


Fred Jarrett possesses the BACKGROUND (experience OUTSIDE County Government) and QUALITIES (independence and integrity) that make him a potentially formidable and winning candidate for county executive.

But there's a werid thing to me about the poll: They didn't test voter reactions to Fred Jarrett's main rival, Ross Hunter. 

Among the pack of Democrats running for King County Executive, state Sen. Jarrett and state Rep. Hunter—legislators from Seattle's moderate eastside suburbs—are battling for the same supporters. (Seattle liberals, King County Council Members Larry Phillips and Dow Constantine are battling it out West of Lake Washington.)

While the poll tested positive blurbs about each candidate to see which candidate got the best reaction (it was Jarrett with 54 percent positive, and Phillips and Constantine close behind at 52 and 51 respectively), Hunter's bio was not tested. (Hunter's name recognition was tested, and he finished last.)

Leaving out Rep. Hunter seems like a big omission given that the pollster's final analysis hinged on Jarrett's Eastside bona fides:
"Jarrett has the potential to be the consensus candidate who can build on his base on the Eastside ... while he has enough appeal to deny Phillips and Constantine the strong showing BOTH Seattle-based candidates need in Seattle.

Another thing that's a little weird about the poll is this: The numbers initially show that voters strongly favor (58 percent overall) a candidate with experience outside King County government and frown on (only 23 percent want) a candidate with experience on the Council.  But Phillips (who's described to voters as a County government veteran) gets a similarly favorable reaction as Jarrett. 

One final note about the poll: While former KIRO anchor Susan Hutchison was the clear front runner thanks to her name recognition, it looks like her support will plummet when voters find out more about her. Hutchison—as Erica C. Barnett thoroughly documented at the Stranger—is a social conservative. She was a board member at the Discovery Institute when they were leading the push to "Teach the controversy" (which has since been famously faced by a federal judge in Pennsylvania.)

The poll found that heavy majorities of voters (81 percent, 79 percent, and 60 percent of Democrats, Independents, and women voters respectively) frown on things like teaching creationism in the schools. And even 47 percent of her own initial supporters don't like the those views.
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