According to a new report from the Economic Opportunity Institute, Governor Chris Gregoire's proposal to raise tuition will nudge U.W.—currently priced about $2,000 below the national average at $7,000 a year—into the "high tuition/high aid" model.

The theory behind "high tuition/high aid" (in addition to helping the U.W. deal with the state budgeting shortfall and the proposed 13 to 20 percent cuts) is that raising costs puts more money in the kitty for aid to low-income students.

Okay. But, impressively, 20 percent (5000) of the U.W.'s students already come from low-income families. And more important, the EOI study shows the "high tuition/high aid" formula actually has a history of reducing access to low-income students.

The study also flags other negative impacts, like increased student debt. 

All evidence from universities already using the “high-tuition/high-aid” model shows the problem continues to grow. At the University of Michigan, average indebtedness upon graduation is $25,586, nearly $10,000 more than what University of Washington students now leave with.  

The University of Vermont has similarly been unable to prevent huge increases in student debt. According to Scott Giles, Vice President of Policy, Research, and Planning at UV, "The challenge we face is that the resources that legislature have provided us have not been sufficient, particularly over the course of the last 10 years."  

According to State Relations Director Randy Hodgins, the University of Washington currently boasts a  relatively low average student debt upon graduation: $16,481 compared to the national average of  $19,400.11. 

The UW would likely face the same struggle as other universities under high-tuition/high-aid. Two-thirds of the UW’s financial aid resources come from the federal and state levels.12 Even with an increased commitment from the UW to provide low-income students with grants, significant help from the legislature would be necessary to balance the tuition increases.