Showing optimism for anything in the year 2024 is not necessarily easy on paper. Showing optimism for the Seattle Mariners—a franchise that has made the postseason just one time since 2001—is a challenge that is on par with beating Elden Ring on SL1 difficulty or Contra without hitting the title screen code. Sorry for nerding out there for a second. But trust me, those are really hard video games.

And yet not that long ago, there were plenty of reasons to feel giddy about this year’s Mariners. After sweeping the defending-champion Texas Rangers at home and beating the Guardians on the road a day later, Seattle was the proud owner of a 10-game division lead in the American League West. Now, going into the All-Star break, that lead has dwindled down to a single game.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Mariners, with a record of 52–46, wouldn’t be in first place in any other division. Nor would they be in first if it wasn’t for a dreadful 7–19 start by the Houston Astros. But, they are in this division. And the Astros did get off to that dreadful start. And while it’d be far easier to be pessimistic about their chances to make a deep run this October because (points emphatically at Baseball Reference Team History page), there are actually plenty of reasons why Mariner fans should be optimistic about their chances coming out of the All-Star break.

The most obvious reason is the rotation. The Seattle starting staff has been spectacular and helped the Mariners register the second best ERA in baseball. First-time All-Star Logan Gilbert has been the (somewhat surprising) ace, but George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo—when healthy—have combined to form a rotation as good as any in the sport. The Mariners only have a clear advantage over division rivals in Houston and Texas in one area, but it’s this one, and you could argue quite easily it’s the most important one.

A less obvious reason, at least in 2024, is Julio Rodríguez. I’ll give you a moment to unroll your eyes. There’s no denying that Rodríguez has been disappointing in 2024, but his disappointing results in the first half present more opportunity than crisis. The fact the Seattle Mariners are a first-place team even with their best player struggling to hit is remarkable. It helps that he’s provided value on the bases and in center field—a position he plays as well as anyone. But the real cause for optimism here is the simple fact that Rodríguez is a significantly better player in the second half than the first. The signs of life are already there. Rodríguez is going to be fine. I promise.

It’s a little harder to have confidence in the rest of the lineup outside of the man they call Big Dumper and the possibility of what baseball geeks call positive regression (the idea that players who are performing below their career averages—like J. P. Crawford, Mitch Garver, and Jorge Polanco—will tend to “correct” toward those averages.) But what the Mariners do have is a farm system that can bring in some reinforcements. Not so much in terms of players they can call up from the minors to help the team now, but prospects that they can trade for guys who can. 

The Mariners’ farm system is loaded. General manager Justin Hollander and President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto have said all the right things about a willingness to spend prospects and money on the right players. It’s understandable if some folks are skeptical about that based on very recent history. After all, they traded Jarred Kelenic, who would be their best hitter this year, to Atlanta for salary relief. But it does feel different this time. The Mariners have a golden opportunity. Their first division title since 2001 is actually within reach.

But do you want to know the biggest reason for optimism? Because why not, that’s why. I’m not saying you should put blind faith into the Seattle ownership group or its front office. Those of you who have watched my YouTube show (plug no. 1) and listened to me on the radio (plug no. 2) know that I have shared my frustrations with the head honchos. Often quite loudly. 

But the crappiness of the Seattle Mariners for the overwhelming majority of my life has also taught me to appreciate the good times even more. The joy of a Cal Raleigh home run is so much more potent than the dismay of watching a half-hearted Chone Figgins strikeout. Why not choose to believe in the former? What’s the worst thing that happens if the dreams don’t come true? A heart can’t break twice or something like that. I think that’s a Dua Lipa song.

In the past nine months, I have lost my mom, my stepdad, and my dog a.k.a my best friend of the last 14 years. I know negativity at its deepest level. As frustrating as they can be, the Mariners are a good baseball team—a flawed baseball team, to be sure, but a good baseball team—that can do real damage in October. You’ll have to forgive me if I choose to believe good things are going to happen. They have to happen sometime, right?