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Turnout So Far: Skewing Old

By Erica C. Barnett August 18, 2009

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According to an analysis of primary-election turnout through last night by voter list vendor Labels and Lists, the vast majority of people who have voted in King County and Seattle so far are older than 45. The breakdown in King County shows that 51 percent of those who've voted so far are 60 or older, and that another 30 percent are between 45 and 59. That's a total of 81 percent of King County voters older than 45. In Seattle, the numbers skew slightly younger: 44.5 percent are 60 or older, and 28.3 percent are between 45 and 59.

Meanwhile, just 2.6 percent of Seattle voters are between 18 and 34, and just 10.7 percent are between 34 and 45.

If the vote in King County and Seattle continues to skew old, that benefits mayoral challenger Joe Mallahan, who enjoys strong support among voters older than 50 (the latest poll
results show Mallahan at 23 percent among voters age 50 to 64, and at 29 percent among voters 65 or older. Nickels is at 24 and 25 percent among those groups, respectively, and McGinn is at 17 and 21 percent.) An older turnout could also handicap Nickels and challenger Mike McGinn, both of whom fare best among "younger" voters—those 49 and under.

Labels and List VP of operations Robert Schultz says the company (which specializes in providing candidates with personalized voter files for targeting campaign communications) doesn't ordinarily analyze data like voter demographics (e.g., ages); he says they were asked to do so by a campaign. Schultz would not say which campaign asked for the information.
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