Josh doesn't like predicting the election spread, but it's a tradition for me and a to-remain-anonymous political friend, so here are my VERY SPECIFIC predictions for this election (legally binding and guaranteed to be true, of course). Read on only at risk of outing yourself to anyone watching as a huge political nerd:

I- 1033

My Prediction: LOSE with 48 percent. This one will be closer than it should be for such an asinine proposal (in short, it would cap tax growth, creating a permanent recessionary economy), but voters, after learning the consequences of past Tim Eyman initiatives, will make the right choice this time.

R-71

My prediction: WIN by 51 percent. This one will be closer than it needs to be.

King County Executive

My prediction: Dow Constantine WINS with 55 percent. Susan Hutchison has been looking increasingly desperate in recent days, relying on supposedly scurrilous revelations about Constantine's interaction more than a year ago with a female staffer (except, not) and weird stunts like yesterday's "Women for Susan" rally, which was hijacked by Constantine supporters. None of it has worked. And: Late turnout is going to center on Seattle, where candidates (McGinn, Constantine, Mallahan) have been focusing their efforts. All of that favors a solid win for Constantine.

King County Assessor

My prediction: Bob Rosenberger WINS with 35 percent. This one's kind of a crapshoot: A five-way race with two relatively prominent Democrats (Rosenberger and Lloyd Hara) one Republican (Graham Albertini) and two unknowns, so don't hold me to it, but I think Rosenberger squeaks through with 35 percent of the vote.

Seattle Port Commission, Position 3

My prediction: Rob Holland WINS with 56 percent. Holland's opponent, David Doud, has been running one of the ugliest campaigns we've seen this year against Holland (accusing him, among other things, of "mismanaging public money" because the state of Washington once paid him too much unemployment compensation), and it's rubbed folks the wrong way. Perhaps more importantly, the Port Reform campaign that formed this year has been pushing hard for Holland and Position 4 candidate Max Vekich.

Seattle Port Commission, Position 4

My prediction: Max Vekich WINS with 51 percent. Vekich's opponent Tom Albro has garnered his share of endorsements and has a little bit of name recognition as head of the company that runs the Seattle monorail, but we still think Vekich will get enough play from Port Reform's general-election ad and mailing blitz to win this one narrowly.

Mayor

My prediction: Joe Mallahan WINS with 51 percent. I don't think this one will be clear tonight. But I think ultimately, Mallahan pulls it off. Low turnout doesn't help McGinn, who's pushing hard for young voters to turn out today. Josh, of course, disagrees with me.

City Attorney

My prediction: Pete Holmes WINS with 52 percent. The current city attorney, Tom Carr, is unpopular. (Exhibit A: His  campaign rally in West Seattle this morning, above). And despite PubliCola's incredibly influential endorsement of Carr, I think this term will be his last.

Seattle City Council Position 2

My prediction: Richard Conlin WINS with 69 percent. It will be a miracle if Conlin challenger David Ginsberg breaks 40 percent in this race. More than a miracle: I think it's impossible.

Seattle City Council Position 4

My prediction: Sally Bagshaw WINS with 65 percent. That may be conservative: Bloom came out of the primary with just 18 percent of the vote to Bagshaw's 51 percent.

Seattle City Council Position 6

My prediction: Licata WINS with 60 percent. Again, that might be conservative. Jessie Israel's Cathy Allen-run campaign went over to the law-and-order dark side in the final days, and it's hard to see that winning her many votes in liberal Seattle. Plus, she hasn't given voters much of a reason to dislike Licata, who will win his fourth term handily.

Seattle City Council Position 8

My prediction: O'Brien wins with 54 percent. Robert Rosencrantz's desperate last-minute attempt to smear O'Brien for "supporting tolls on all neighborhood streets" may win him a few conservative/NIMBY votes, but O'Brien has several things going in his favor. First, he hasn't (unlike Rosencrantz) run twice before. Second, his campaign mail and signs are distinctive and effective (unlike Rosencrantz's). Finally, he's a likable guy who's run a strong campaign. He gets all the McGinn votes, and then some.

Seattle Housing Levy

My prediction: WINS by 60 percent. It's Seattle. It's the housing levy. No way it's going to lose.

Seattle School Board, Position 5

My prediction: Kay Smith-Blum WINS with 56 percent. Every couple of years, Seattle voters "throw the bums out" and replace the School Board with a new slate. Now it's Mary Bass' turn to go. Plus, Smith-Blum has been winning most of the endorsements.

Seattle School Board, Position 7

My prediction: Betty Patu wins with 52 percent. Actually, I have no idea on this one. Patu has won her share of endorsements; Chin has more mail. Patu has experience working directly with kids; Chin has managerial experience. Who knows? I'm going with Patu.