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Extra Fizz: Mallahan, Constantine Ahead in Big-Ticket Races. R-71 Ahead. 1033 Down.
Update/Caveat: The sample size in the poll is not standard. The pollsters report they polled 724 people statewide. That's solid, but if you break that down for Seattle, you're talking about 65 people (about nine percent of the state's population.) That's not a reliable sample on the Mayor's race, for example.
The pollsters do report that they oversampled in Seattle, but then that may have skewed the numbers on I-1033 and R-71.
All in all, lots of questions about the poll. And the PI.com reminds us that in August the Washington Poll had McGinn in fourth place at 9 percent—losing the primary behind Nickels, Mallahan, and Donaldson.
In fact, McGinn won the August 18 primary, 27.7 to Mallahan's 26.8.
Update: UW political science professor Dr. Matt Barreto, who heads up The Washington Poll, says they polled 400 Seattle voters.
A new poll released this morning by The Washington Poll at the UW has Joe Mallahan leading Mike McGinn in the mayor's race 44 to 36 and Dow Constantine beating Susan Hutchison 47 to 34 in the King County Executive's race.
The poll also has a snapshot comparing voters before and after McGinn's big "I wont be a baby about the tunnel" announcement.
Before: McGinn 35 vs. Mallahan 34.
After: McGinn 29 vs. Mallahan 45.
And the crosstabs have the stuff you already knew: McGinn is ahead among Democrats and young people; Mallahan is ahead among older voters and Republicans; and Constantine is beating Hutchison among Democrats 72 to 7 while losing to Hutchison among independents 57 to 25.
The Washington Poll also looked at I-1033 (Tim Eyman's state government spending cap) and R-71, the measure to affirm or nix expanded domestic partner rights.
Eyman's 1033 is losing 46 to 41 among all voters. It's also losing among likely voters, 49 to 40, and it's losing among those who have already voted, 56 to 44.
R-71 (remember, a vote to "approve" means gay couples keep their rights) is winning 56 to 39 among all voters, 57 to 38 among likely voters, and winning 55 to 45 among those who have already voted.
The pollsters do report that they oversampled in Seattle, but then that may have skewed the numbers on I-1033 and R-71.
All in all, lots of questions about the poll. And the PI.com reminds us that in August the Washington Poll had McGinn in fourth place at 9 percent—losing the primary behind Nickels, Mallahan, and Donaldson.
In fact, McGinn won the August 18 primary, 27.7 to Mallahan's 26.8.
Update: UW political science professor Dr. Matt Barreto, who heads up The Washington Poll, says they polled 400 Seattle voters.
A new poll released this morning by The Washington Poll at the UW has Joe Mallahan leading Mike McGinn in the mayor's race 44 to 36 and Dow Constantine beating Susan Hutchison 47 to 34 in the King County Executive's race.
The poll also has a snapshot comparing voters before and after McGinn's big "I wont be a baby about the tunnel" announcement.
Before: McGinn 35 vs. Mallahan 34.
After: McGinn 29 vs. Mallahan 45.
And the crosstabs have the stuff you already knew: McGinn is ahead among Democrats and young people; Mallahan is ahead among older voters and Republicans; and Constantine is beating Hutchison among Democrats 72 to 7 while losing to Hutchison among independents 57 to 25.
The Washington Poll also looked at I-1033 (Tim Eyman's state government spending cap) and R-71, the measure to affirm or nix expanded domestic partner rights.
Eyman's 1033 is losing 46 to 41 among all voters. It's also losing among likely voters, 49 to 40, and it's losing among those who have already voted, 56 to 44.
R-71 (remember, a vote to "approve" means gay couples keep their rights) is winning 56 to 39 among all voters, 57 to 38 among likely voters, and winning 55 to 45 among those who have already voted.
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