1. Adam Parast at the Seattle Transit Blog reports on two studies of tolling on the proposed Alaskan Way tunnel from 2002 and 2008 that produced drastically different estimates of how much money tolling could produce to cover tunnel construction.

The 2002 study looked at how much drivers would be willing to pay to use the cut-and-cover tunnel (which, unlike the deep-bore tunnel, would have had exits downtown). It found that drivers would pay between 16 and 31 cents, producing between $35 million and $95 million for construction costs. The 2008 study, in contrast, set predetermined rates between $1.10 and $2.25, depending on time of day, and found that tolls could produce up to $330 million for construction costs—a four-to-ten-fold increase over the previous estimate.

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WSDOT attributes the elevated estimates to "different methodology." That's true, but the new estimates also show that the agency is significantly over-pricing its toll estimates to produce the revenues it needs to pay for the tunnel. And, as Parast points out, higher tolls cause people to take other routes (or choose not to drive or to drive at different times)  According to WSDOT's own estimates, about 40 percent of traffic will disappear if toll rates are set that high. So it's unlikely the state will reap that kind of money from tolling in the first place.

In other words, like its tunnel cost estimates , WSDOT's tolling numbers appear tailored to make the tunnel look feasible.

2. Enough wonkery; back to the election! King County Executive candidate Susan Hutchison has consistently said she doesn't belong to any political party (despite a long history of donating to Republicans).

So why is she holding three phone banking events this week at the headquarters of the King County Republican Party ?

3. Nick Licata opponent Jessie Israel, who has about $54,000 on hand, is trying to raise another $15,000 before election day to get a last-minute campaign commercial (viewable here) on the air.

Licata, whose biggest campaign expenditure so far was a goofy "newspaper" called the Seattle Planet (lead story: Licata arrested for riding his bike in the Fremont Solstice Parade wearing clothes), doesn't seem likely to respond in kind: He only has about $16,000 in the bank.

4. Two cool events tonight, one for campaign junkies, one for the campaign-weary.

At 4:00, Futurewise, the Transportation Choices Coalition, and other groups will host a happy-hour at Pike Brewing Co. (1415 First Ave.) to unveil a new publication responding to questions around last year's failed transit-oriented communities bill, which would have increased density around light-rail stops. The happy hour will be followed by a 6:00 reception at AIA Seattle (1911 First Ave.).

Legislators are expected to come back with a revamped version of the bill next year.

Also at 6:00, CityClub and Seattle Works are hosting a "Speed Candi-Dating" event at Rainier Square (1333 Fifth Ave., Third Floor) where you can meet the candidates and ask them questions one-on-one. Tickets for that one are $15.

This morning's Morning Fizz is brought to you by Kay Smith-Blum for School Board.