Nearly all votes are counted in King County. And despite huge gains for attorney and educator Nikkita Oliver in Monday's count, urban planner Cary Moon is pretty certain to lead as the second-place mayoral candidate on the November ballot.
King County Elections added another 14,000 ballots to the count on Monday, giving Oliver another boost—she closed the gap between her and Moon from a 2,235- to a 1,664-vote margin, only 0.9 percentage points from that second-place seat to the November 7 general election. But that leaves an estimate of just 1,500 to 2,000 ballots left that will be counted, according to King County Elections. Though Oliver didn't concede, she would essentially have to get all of the remaining ballots to make up the difference at this point.
The remaining number will rely on how many challenged and alternative-format ballots will end up getting counted. There are about 2,000 alternative-format ballots and 1,800 outstanding signature ballots being challenged, as well as a small group of postmarked ballots (fewer than 100).
Monday's ballot count was the biggest jump yet for Oliver—that still was only less than one-quarter of the total votes counted (roughly 3,400 from 14,000 new votes). Both Moon and Jenny Durkan, who's still first with 28.1 percent of votes, got about one-fifth of the new votes.
Oliver in a released statement Monday said her campaign was excited about today's results and will continue to chase challenged votes, adding that the campaign has accomplished the goal to "shift the conversation" and activate people not normally involved in the political process. She also pointed out that she's raised the second-most amount among mayoral candidates.
"We're within 1 percentage point, so we're far from conceding," Oliver said. "I believe in letting the process play itself out, so we'll wait until every vote is counted. We're moving in the right direction, and we have faith that the voters of Seattle want us in the general election."
Moon on Monday said she was grateful for the support "for a different kind of leadership for Seattle" and would make another statement after every vote is counted.
Right now the race is beyond the range of a recount. There would have to be a difference of less than 2,000 votes and 0.5 percentage points between the second- and third-place candidates for an automatic machine recount.